EURUSD – The Big Picture For The Euro To Dollar

Key Highlights

  • The Euro is likely to remain under a bearish pressure vs the US Dollar looking at the weekly chart.
  • The EURUSD pair is well below the 100-week simple moving average and 1.0900, suggesting a bearish structure.
  • Today, the Spanish House Price Index (QoQ) for Q1 2017 will be released by Spanish Government with forecast around 0.2%.
  • Tomorrow, the German consumer price index for Feb 2017 (MoM) will be released with forecast being stable at +0.6%.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained under a lot of pressure during the past few weeks, as it moved below 1.0700 support area. The EURUSD pair is likely to remain in the bearish territory looking at the weekly chart.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

After testing the 1.0500 support area on a couple of occasions, the pair formed a monster contracting triangle on the weekly chart with support at 1.0920. Later, the pair broke the triangle support and moved down towards 1.0350.

The pair is currently recovering, but considering the long-term view, the pair is in a bearish structure with resistance at 1.0800 and 1.0900. On the downside, there can be a test of the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the 1.0518 low to 1.1616 high at 1.0259.

The weekly RSI is also below the 50 level, and struggling to head north, which is a bearish sign. There can be short term rallies towards 1.0700 or 1.0720, but could face resistance in that case. In the long term, the EURUSD pair may continue to struggle with major resistances near 1.0800 and 1.10.

Japanese Machinery New Orders

Today in Japan, the New orders, which are the total value of machinery orders placed at major manufacturers was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was aligned for a minor rise of 0.5% in Jan 2017, compared with the previous month.

However, the result was negative, as there was a decline of 3.2% in Jan 2017. The yen weakened by a few pips after the release.

Upcoming Important Economic Releases

  • German consumer price index for Feb 2017 (MoM) – Forecast +0.6%, versus +0.6% previous.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment for March 2017- Forecast 12.0 versus 10.4 previous.
  • Euro Zone Industrial Production for Jan 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +1.1%, versus +2% previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex/Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over seven years as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency and commodities markets.

Aayush's latest posts