AUD/USD Trimming Gains, Can It Bounce Back?

Key Highlights

  • The Aussie Dollar topped near 0.6895 and declined recently against the US Dollar.
  • AUD/USD broke an ascending channel with support near 0.6870 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Australia’s Employment changed 34.7K in August 2019, less than the last revised 36.4K.
  • The Unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.3% in August 2019.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Earlier this past month, the Aussie Dollar climbed higher sharply from the 0.6687 swing low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair climbed above 0.6800 and recently topped near the 0.6894 level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie Dollar US Dollar

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair started a downside correction after it failed to climb above the 0.6900 resistance level. To start the decline, there was a break below an ascending channel with support near 0.6870.

As a result, there was a sharp decline below the 0.6850 and 0.6840 support levels. Moreover, the pair traded below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last major upward move from the 0.6687 low to 0.6894 high.

Finally, the pair spiked below the 0.6800 support and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). It has opened the doors for more downsides below 0.6780, plus the 50% Fib retracement level of the last major upward move from the 0.6687 low to 0.6894 high.

The next key support is near the 0.6755, where the bulls may take a stand. If there is an upside correction, the previous support near 0.6820 and 0.6840 could stop the rise.

Fundamentally, the Australian Employment Change figure for August 2019 was released recently by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was looking for a change of 10.0K in the employment, less than the last 41.1K.

The actual result was better than the forecast, as employment increased by 34,700 to 12,926,900 persons. However, the last reading was revised down from 41.1K to 36.4K. Moreover, the Unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.3% in August 2019.

The report added:

Full-time employment decreased by 15,500 to 8,818,000 persons and part-time employment increased by 50,200 to 4,108,900 persons. Unemployment increased by 4,100 to 716,800 persons.

Overall, AUD/USD might struggle to bounce back and it could correct further lower towards 0.6750. On the other hand, there were a few positive signs emerging for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Upcoming Economic Releases

  • German Producer Price Index August 2019 (MoM) – Forecast -0.2%, versus +0.1% previous.
  • Euro Zone Consumer Confidence Sep 2019 (Preliminary) – Forecast -7.0, versus -7.1 previous.

Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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