AUDUSD Key Reversal Could Trigger Next Rally Higher

Key Highlights

  • Aussie Dollar traded higher against the US Dollar, as buyers were seen active during the past couple of sessions.
  • Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics increased by 0.8% in May 2015, compared with the same month a year ago.
  • RBA meeting minutes were released during the Asian session in which the central bank continued to talk down the Aussie Dollar.

AUDUSD – Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar gained traction recently to trade higher versus the US Dollar. There is a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is acting as a support and every time it falls buyers appear to protect the downside. There are a couple of important bullish signs to note, as the pair is well above the hourly 100 and 200 simple moving average.

The hourly RSI is also above the 50 level, marking the fact that buyers are in control. If the pair corrects lower from the current levels, then an initial support is seen around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7703 low to 0.7778 high.


On the upside, the recent swing high of 0.7800 is a major hurdle for buyers. If they manage an hourly close above the same, more gains towards 0.7850 cannot be discarded in the near term.

Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales

Earlier during the Asian session, the New Motor Vehicle Sales, which measures motor vehicle sales in Australia and is considered as an indicator for consumer confidence was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was lined up for an increase of more than 1% in May 2015, compared with the same month a year ago. However, the outcome was a bit on the lower side, as the New Motor Vehicle Sales rose 0.8%.

In terms of the monthly change, the New Motor Vehicle Sales declined by 1.3% in May 2015. Overall, the data was not encouraging to lift the AUDUSD pair.

US Housing Starts Report

Later today, the US Housing Starts data, i.e. an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed will be released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce. The forecast is 1.100M in April 2015, compared to the preceding month. Any miss in the result might weigh on the US Dollar moving ahead.

Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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