Can AUD Sellers Keep the Momentum Going? – Below the 200

Key Highlights

  • Aussie Dollar continued to weaken against the US Dollar, and it is likely to move lower in the near term.
  • AUDUSD pair is following a nice bearish trend, which if holds might encourage sellers moving ahead.
  • There was no real positive sign to note from the recently published RBA meeting minutes.
  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals released by the Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 9.2% in June 2015, compared with the last gain of 9.5%.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar recently traded towards 0.7320-30 support area against the US Dollar where it managed to find buyers. The AUDUSD pair is currently making an attempt to correct higher, but there is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a barrier towards the upside. There were many rejections noted around the highlighted trend line. The most important point is the fact that the pair is below the 200 and 100 hourly simple moving averages, which is a negative sign for buyers.


The 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7438 high to 0.7326 low is also a major hurdle on the upside. Let us see how the pair trades in the near term and whether it can clear the stated hurdles and trade higher.

The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which is pointing towards more losses. On the downside, the last low of 0.7326 is a short-term support area.

RBA Meeting Minutes

Earlier during the Asian session, there was a major release in Australia, as the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings were published. There was nothing encouraging for buyers in the meetings, which kind of stalled the upside in AUDUSD. The report stated that “Members noted that output had increased by 0.9 per cent in the March quarter and by 2.3 per cent over the year. Resource exports had made a significant contribution to growth, reflecting better-than-usual weather conditions in the quarter”.

New Zealand Visitor Arrivals

There was a release in New Zealand as well, as the Visitor Arrivals data, which measures the number of visitors to New Zealand was published by the Statistics New Zealand. The outcome was lower when compared with the last increase of 9.5%, as there was a rise of 9.2% in June 2015.

Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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