Can Gold Price Maintain Bullish Bias Vs US Dollar?

Key Highlights

  • There was a rise in Gold price towards $1260 against the US Dollar, suggesting positive signs.
  • There is a nice bullish trend line with support at $1246 formed on the hourly chart of XAU/USD.
  • This week’s NFP release on Friday may impact Gold price for a push either above $1260 or below $1240.
  • Today, the US Initial Jobless Claims (March 31 week) will be released by the US Department of Labor, which is forecasted to decrease from 258K to 250K.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

We saw a steady increase in Gold price during the past few days against the US Dollar above $1200. The price is currently under a correction, but remains supported near $1245.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

The recent failure near $1261 was crucial, as the same level acted as a resistance on many occasions. It is already below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1239 low to $1261 high. However, there is a nice bullish trend line with support at $1246 on the hourly chart, waiting to act as barrier for more downsides.

In my view, as long as the price is above $1240, it remains supported. But, at the same time breaking $1260 won’t be easy.

US ADP Employment Change

Recently in the US, the Employment Change for March 2017 was published by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The market was positioned for the change in the number of employed people in the US to register 187K, compared with the previous 298K.

US ADP Employment Change

However, the result was well above the forecast, as the ADP Employment Change came in at 263K in March 2017. The last reading was, however revised down from 298K to 245K.

Commenting on the report, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, stated “Job growth is off to a strong start in 2017. The gains are broad based but most notable in the goods producing side of the economy including construction, manufacturing and mining”. Overall, the report was positive, and may help the USD in the near term.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • German Factory Order for Feb 2017 (MoM) – Forecast +3.5% versus -7.4% previous.
  • Japanese Consumer Confidence for March 2017 – Forecast 43.5 versus 43.1 previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 250K versus 258K previous.
  • Canadian Building Permits for Feb 2017 – Forecast +3% (MoM) versus +5.4% previous.

Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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