EUR/USD Could Extend Losses Before Fresh Increase

Key Highlights

  • The Euro faced a strong resistance near 1.1450 and later corrected lower against the US Dollar.
  • EUR/USD traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.1365 on the 4-hours chart.
  • The US Manufacturing PMI for March 2019 (Prelim) declined from 53.0 to 52.5.
  • The German IFO Business Climate Index for March 2019 could rise from 98.5 to 98.7.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro followed a solid bullish path and traded above 1.1400 against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair faced a strong resistance near 1.1450 and recently started a downside correction.

EURUSD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as high as 1.1447 and later declined below the 1.1420 and 1.1400 support levels. There was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1176 low to 1.1447 high.

Besides, the pair traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.1365, the 200 simple moving average (4-hours, green), and 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red).

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.1250 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1176 low to 1.1447 high. If the pair continues to decline, it could find a strong buying interest near the 1.1250 level.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1340 level and the 100 SMA. If buyers push the pair above the 1.1340 and 1.1350 levels, the pair may perhaps revisit the 1.1400 area.

Fundamentally, the US Manufacturing PMI for March 2019 (Prelim) was released this past Friday. The market was looking for a rise from the last reading of 53.0 to 53.6.

However, the actual result was lower than the forecast, as the US Manufacturing PMI declined to 52.5, instead of a rise to 53.6.

The report added:

March data revealed a slowdown in U.S. private sector output growth, with manufacturing firms experiencing a particularly subdued end to the first quarter of 2019.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair moved into a short term bearish and it could retest the 1.1250 support, where buyers are likely to emerge.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • German IFO Business Climate Index for March 2019 – Forecast 98.7, versus 98.5 previous.
  • German IFO Current Assessment Index March 2019 – Forecast 103.0, versus 103.4 previous.
  • German IFO Expectations Index for March 2019 – Forecast 94.4, versus 93.8 previous.
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for March 2019 – Forecast 7.0, versus 13.1 previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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