EUR/USD Facing Uphill Task Near 1.1450

Key Highlights

  • The Euro recovered recently, but it faced a strong resistance near 1.1450 against the US Dollar.
  • There is a crucial bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.1450 on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD.
  • The US nonfarm payrolls figure in Oct 2018 increased 250K, more than the 190K forecast.
  • Today, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Oct 2018 will be released, which is forecasted to decline from 61.6 to 59.5.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The Euro extended declines this past week and traded towards 1.1300 against the US Dollar. Later, the EUR/USD pair recovered, but it faced a strong resistance near the 1.1450 resistance.

EURUSD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as low as 1.1300 and recovered above the 1.1400 resistance. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1551 high to 1.1300 low.

However, the pair struggled to clear a major resistance near 1.1450, which was a support earlier. Moreover, there was a failure near the 100 simple moving average (4-hours) plus the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1551 high to 1.1300 low.

More importantly, there is a crucial bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.1450 on the same chart. Therefore, it won’t be easy for buyers to clear the 1.1440 and 1.1450 resistance levels.

On the downside, the main support is near the 1.1350, below which the pair is likely to revisit the 1.1300 support area.

Fundamentally, the US nonfarm payrolls figure in Oct 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for an increase from the last reading of 134K to 190K.

The actual result was better than the forecast as the US nonfarm payrolls increased 250K in Oct 2018. However, the last reading was revised from 134K to 118K, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged from 3.7%.

US NFP Oct 2018

The report added:

The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 6.1 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.4 percentage point and 449,000, respectively.

Overall, the US Dollar is likely to remain in an uptrend and pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD could struggle to recover in the coming days.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK Services PMI for Oct 2018 – Forecast 53.3, versus 53.9 previous.
  • US Services PMI for Oct 2018 – Forecast 54.7, versus 54.7 previous.
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Oct 2018 – Forecast 59.5, versus 61.6 previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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