EUR/USD Failed Near Key Resistance, Could Retest 1.1100

Key Highlights

  • The Euro failed to clear a crucial resistance near 1.1260 against the US Dollar.
  • EUR/USD traded below two bullish trend lines near 1.1200 on the 4-hours chart.
  • The Euro Area CPI increased 1.7% in April 2019 (YoY), similar to the forecast and last reading.
  • The German PPI in April 2019 (MoM) might increase 0.2%, whereas the last was -0.1%.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro recovered above the 1.1220 and 1.1240 levels against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair struggled to clear a significant resistance area near 1.1260, and later trimmed most gains.

EURUSD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair failed on three occasions near the 1.1260 and 1.1265 resistance levels. Recently, it traded as high as 1.1262 and declined below 1.1240 and 1.1220.

The recent decline was strong, considering a close below 1.1200, 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red), and the 200 simple moving average (4-hours, green). More importantly, the pair traded below two bullish trend lines near 1.1200 on the same chart.

The pair even traded below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1135 low to 1.1262 high. It opened the doors for more losses below the 1.1165 and 1.1150 support levels.

If the pair continues to move down, it could retest the 1.1135 swing low. Below 1.1135, the pair is likely to test 1.1100 or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 1.1135 low to 1.1262 high.

Conversely, if there is an upside correction, the previous support near 1.1200 and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red) are likely to act as resistance. The next key resistances are 1.1225, 1.1240 and 1.1260.

Fundamentally, the Euro Area CPI report for April 2019 was released by the Eurostat. The market was looking for a 1.7% rise in the CPI compared with the same month a year ago.

The actual result was similar to the forecast, as the Euro Area CPI increased 1.7%. Besides, the monthly change was +0.7%, similar to the forecast, but below the last +1.0%.

The report added:

In April 2019, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+0.86 percentage points, pp), followed by energy (+0.51 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.29 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.06 pp).

Overall, EUR/USD remains at a risk of more losses towards 1.1100 in the near term. Besides, there were heavy downsides in GBP/USD below 1.2900 and 1.2800, and AUD/USD broke the key 0.6900 support area.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • German Producer Price Index April 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus -0.1% previous.
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index April 2019 – Forecast -0.33, versus -0.15 previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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