EUR/USD – Euro in Slow and Steady Downtrend Vs US Dollar

Key Highlights

  • The Euro failed to recover this past week near 1.1680 against the US Dollar and declined.
  • There was a break below an ascending channel with support at 1.1630 on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD.
  • This past Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls number for Oct 2017 was released, which posted 261K versus the 310K forecast.
  • Today, the Euro Zone’s Services PMI for Oct 2017 will be released, which is forecasted to remain at 54.9.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a recovery from the 1.1575 low against the US Dollar this past week. However, the EUR/USD pair failed near 1.1680, declined once again and is now back in the bearish zone.

EURUSD Technical Analysis Euro US Dollar

During the upside correction, the pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1575 low. However, it faced a strong selling interest near 1.1680 and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1836 high to 1.1575 low.

It started declining and broke an ascending channel with support at 1.1630 on the 4-hours chart. The pair is now back in the bearish zone below 1.1640-50 and might continue to move down.

US Nonfarm Payrolls

The US nonfarm payrolls number for Oct 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor on this past Friday. The market was looking for a solid rise of 310K in jobs compared with the last decline of 33K.

The actual was 261K, which was below the forecast. On the positive side, the previous reading was revised from -33K to 18K. Moreover, there was a decline from 4.2% to 4.1% in the US unemployment rate.

US Nonfarm payrolls Oct 2017

The report added:

Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.7 percentage point, and the number of unemployed persons has decreased by 1.1 million. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 369,000 to 4.8 million in October.

Overall, the result was positive and weighed on EUR/USD for a downside reaction below 1.1640.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • German Factory Orders for Sep 2017 (MoM) – Forecast -1.5%, versus +3.6% previous.
  • Germany’s Services PMI for Oct 2017 – Forecast 55.2, versus 55.2 previous.
  • Euro Zone Services PMI for Oct 2017 – Forecast 54.9, versus 54.9 previous.
  • Canada’s Ivey PMI Oct 2017 (s.a.) – Forecast 60.2, versus 59.6 previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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