GBP Eying Claimant Change and Unemployment Report For Break

Key Highlights

  • British pound trades in the positive territory ahead of a major release in the UK.
  • UK Claimant Change and Unemployment rate report will be released by the National Statistics today, which might cause swing moves in GBPUSD.
  • The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings will also be published, which is another high-risk event.
  • GBPCHF pair is heading towards an important resistance area ahead of the key releases.

UK Unemployment Report

Today during the London session, the UK Claimant Change and Unemployment rate report will be released by the National Statistics. The forecast is of -25.0K for the UK Claimant Change in January 2015, compared to the preceding month in which the reading was of -29.7K. The UK unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.8%. The Average Earing Excluding Bonus and Average Earing Including Bonus are expected to gain by 1.8% and 1.7% respectively.

There is one more major release lined up as the minutes of the BoE MPC meetings will also be published. Last time there was change in votes, as no member voted for a rate hike. Let us see how it shapes up in this meeting. The BOE MPC Vote Hike is expected to remain at 0, which might be on the negative side for GBPUSD.

Technical Analysis

The British pound traded higher recently not only against the US dollar, but also against the Swiss franc. There is a bearish trend line formed on the 4 hour chart of the GBPCHF pair, which is acting as a hurdle in the near term. The pair recently managed to clear the 200 simple moving average (4H) and traded higher to challenge the 1.4380 level.

GBPCHF  02.18.2015

On the downside, initial support is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4001 low to 1.4388 high. Moreover, the 38.2% fib level also holds the key as it is aligned with the 100 SMA (4H).

BOJ Interest Rate Decision

There was a critical event lined up in Japan during the Asian session today, as the Bank of Japan announced interest rates and policy decision. They kept the interest rates unchanged as expected and their monetary policy steady with an annual pace of 80T yen.

The USDJPY pair fell initially after the release, but later managed to recover ground to trade back towards the 119.30 level.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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