NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar Sellers In Driver’s Seat Vs USD

Key Highlights

  • The New Zealand Dollar made a downside move from the 0.7200 swing high against the US Dollar.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6900-0.6920 on the 4-hours chart of NZD/USD.
  • New Zealand’s Employment Change in Q3 2017 was 2.2%, compared with the forecast of 0.8%.
  • Today in the US, the Fed Interest rate decision is scheduled and the central bank is likely to keep rates at 1.25%.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar started a crucial downtrend from the 0.7200 swing high against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair is currently well below 0.6920 and looks set to extend declines.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis New Zealand Dollar US Dollar

During the recent slide, the pair broke the 0.7060 and 0.6900 support levels and traded as low as 0.6818. The pair is currently attempting a recovery, but facing sellers near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7003 high to 0.6818 low.

Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6900-0.6920 on the 4-hours chart. Any major corrections from the current levels are likely to face hurdles near 0.6900 and 0.6920 in the near term.

On the downside, a break of the 0.6818 low would ignite further losses below 0.6800.

New Zealand Employment Change and Unemployment

Earlier today, the New Zealand Employment Change figure for Q3 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The forecast was lined up for a change of 0.8% in Q3 2017 compared with the last -0.2%.

The actual result was better than the forecast, as the New Zealand Employment Change in Q3 2017 was 2.2%. Looking at the Unemployment Rate, the market was looking for a decline from 4.8% to 4.7% in Q3 2017. However, the actual was again better, as there was a decline to 4.6%.

New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q3 2017

The report added that:

In the September 2017 quarter, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent (down 0.2 percentage points from the June quarter), the lowest unemployment rate since the December 2008 quarter.

Overall, the NZD/USD pair might correct towards 0.6920, but most likely to face sellers on the upside.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK’s Manufacturing PMI for Oct 2017 – Forecast 55.8, versus 55.9 previous.
  • US Manufacturing PMI for Oct 2017 – Forecast 54.5, versus 54.5 previous.
  • US ADP Employment Change Oct 2017 – Forecast 200K, versus 135K previous.
  • US ISM Manufacturing Index for Oct 2017 – Forecast 59.5, versus 60.8 previous.
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 1.25%, versus 1.25% previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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