USD/JPY Facing Uphill Task Ahead of US NFP

Key Highlights

  • The US Dollar found support near 105.30 and recovered against the Japanese Yen.
  • There is a monster bearish trend line forming with resistance at 107.10 on the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY.
  • The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 3, 2018 posted a rise from 210K to 231K.
  • Today, the US nonfarm payrolls figure for Feb 2018 will be released, which is forecasted to increase by 200K.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar formed a decent support around 105.30 after a major decline against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair is correcting higher, but it is facing a crucial resistance near 107.00-10.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of USD/JPY, there was a support formed and the pair recovered above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.67 high to 105.25 low.

USDJPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

However, there is a significant resistance around 107.00 on the upside. There is also a monster bearish trend line forming with resistance at 107.10.

Moreover, the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 107.67 high to 105.25 low is at 107.10. Therefore, it seems like the 107.00-10 region is a crucial hurdle for more gains in USD/JPY.

On the downside, the last swing low of 106.20 is a key support. A break below 106.20 could push the pair towards 105.30. The 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) is also a short-term support at 106.50.

Recently, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 3, 2018 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was looking for a rise from the last reading of 210K to 220K.

The result was lower than the forecast, as there was a rise in claims from 210K to 231K. The report added that:

The 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 220,500.

Overall, the USD/JPY pair may continue to face a strong selling interest on the upside near 107.10. A close above 107.10 could trigger further gains toward 108.00.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • Germany’s Trade Balance for Jan 2018 – Forecast €21.1B, versus €21.4B previous.
  • Germany’s Industrial Production for Jan 2018 (MoM) – Forecast +0.5%, versus -0.6% previous.
  • UK Industrial Production for Jan 2018 (MoM) – Forecast +1.5%, versus -1.3% previous.
  • US nonfarm payrolls Feb 2018 – Forecast 200K, versus 200K previous.
  • US Unemployment Rate Feb 2018 – Forecast 4.0%, versus 4.1% previous.
  • Canada’s employment Change payrolls Feb 2018 – Forecast 20K, versus -88K previous.
  • Canada’s Unemployment Rate Feb 2018 – Forecast 5.9%, versus 5.9% previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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