USD/JPY – Bearish Break Sighted for Dollar To Japanese Yen

Key Highlights

  • The US Dollar seems like made a short-term top near 114.48 against the Japanese Yen.
  • The USD/JPY pair broke a major bullish pattern with support at 113.80 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Today in the US, the Consumer Price Index for June 2017 will be published, which is forecasted to increase by 1.7% (YoY), down from the last +1.9%.
  • Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 8, 2017) was released, which posted a decline from the last revised reading of 250K to 247K.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar was in a crucial uptrend and traded above 114.00 against the Japanese Yen. However, it seems like the USD/JPY pair has made a short-term top near 114.48 and poised for more declines.

USDJPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

The pair declined from 114.48 and broke a major bullish pattern with support at 113.80 on the 4-hours chart. It has opened the doors for more losses below 112.50 in the near term.

Recently, the pair found support and buyers near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the 111.73 low to 114.48 high. At present, it is trading correcting higher, but still remains at risk around 113.80.

If the pair declines one more time and closed below 113.00, it may push the pair towards the 112.50 level. On the upside, the 113.80-90 levels are initial resistances.

US Initial Jobless Claims

Recently in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 8, 2017 was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was positioned for a decrease from 248K to 245K. However, the result was slightly negative, as the last reading was revised to 250K, and the current was 247K.

The report added that:

The 4-week moving average was 245,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 243,000 to 243,500.

Overall, the US Dollar may still face sellers and USD/JPY could retest the 112.80-90 zone.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US Consumer Price Index June 2017 (MoM) – Forecast 0.1%, versus -0.1% previous.
  • US Consumer Price Index June 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +1.7%, versus +1.9% previous.
  • US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy June 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +1.7%, versus +1.7% previous.
  • US Retail Sales June 2017 (MoM) – Forecast +0.1%, versus -0.3% previous.
  • US Industrial Production June 2017 (MoM) – Forecast 0.3%, versus 0% previous.
  • US Capacity Utilization June 2017 – Forecast 76.7%, versus 76.6% previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a decade as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

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