NZDUSD – New Zealand Dollar May Attempt To Reclaim 0.7250

Key Highlights

  • The New Zealand dollar after dropping towards 0.7130 against the US dollar found support.
  • The NZDUSD pair consolidated for some time before breaking a channel resistance at 0.7185 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Today in New Zealand, the Retail Sales figure for Q4 2016 released by the Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 0.8%, compared with the 1.1% forecast.
  • The Retail Sales ex autos came in at 0.6% in Q4 2016, up from the last +0.3% (revised).

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar after making a top near 0.7370 on 7th Feb 2011 vs the US Dollar declined. The NZDUSD pair later formed support near 0.7130 and might attempt to trade back above 0.7250.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis New Zealand US Dollar

The NZDUSD pair during the downside formed a descending channel pattern with resistance at 0.7185 on the 4-hours chart. Later, the pair gained traction and managed to break the channel resistance at 0.7185 for an upside break.

The pair moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7375 high to 0.7134 low. So, there is a chance of an extension and a move towards the 50% Fib level of the same wave at 0.7250.

The stated level also coincides with the 100 simple moving average. So, a break won’t be easy, but if the momentum stays intact, the pair might reclaim 0.7250.

New Zealand Retail Sales

Today in New Zealand, the Retail Sales figure for Q4 2016 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was expecting the total receipts of retail stores to increase by 1.1% in Q4 2016, compared with the previous quarter.

New Zealand Retail Sales Q4 2016

However, the result was on the lower side, as the NZ Retail Sales grew 0.8% in Q4 2016. Moreover, the total receipts of retail stores excluding the automobile sector increased 0.6%. There were downward revisions for the last readings. So, overall, the result was not as the market expected. This decreases the chances of NZDUSD moving above the 0.7250 without a correction in the near term.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK Retail Sales for Jan 2017 – Forecast +3.4% (YoY) versus +4.3% previous.
  • US Leading Indicators by the Conference Board for Jan 2017 – Forecast +0.5% (MoM) versus +0.5% previous.


Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex/Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over seven years as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency and commodities markets.

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