GBPUSD – Important Break ahead of Fed?16 December, 2015 by Aayush Jindal in Fundamental Analysis, GBPUSD, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis
GBPUSD – Important Break ahead of Fed?
- British Pound traded lower against the US Dollar and broke a major support trend line on the hourly chart.
- Can this be considered as an important break just ahead of the fed interest rate decision?
- The GBPUSD pair traded as low as 1.5030, and currently struggling to hold the ground.
- US Total Net TIC Flows released by the US Department of Treasury posted a reading of $68.9B for October 2015, compared with the last reading of $-172.7B (revised).
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair after climbing towards the 1.5240 resistance area found sellers for a downside move. There was a sharp downside reaction, taking the GBPUSD pair below an important support trend line on the hourly chart.
The pair has settled below the 200 and 100 hourly simple moving average, which is a sign that sellers are in control. If the pair attempts to recover from the current levels, then it may find resistance near the 200 MA, coinciding with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5239 high to 1.5028 low.
On the downside, a break below the recent low of 1.5028 could take the pair towards the all-important 1.50 support area. The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which is a bearish sign.
US Total Net TIC Flows
Recently, the US saw the total Net TIC (TIC stands for Treasury International Capital) Flows was reported released by the US Department of Treasury. The outcome was positive, as there was an increase in flows from the last revised reading of $-172.7B to $68.9B for October 2015.
However, on the other hand, if we analyze the Net Long-Term TIC Flows, then there was a decline of $-16.6B, compared with the forecast of a $32.4B rise.
UK Claimant Change
Today, there is a crucial release in the UK, as the Claimant Change, which presents the number of unemployment people in the UK will be released by the National Statistics. The forecast is of a change of 2.0K in November 2015, compared with the last 3.3K. The Unemployment rate is forecasted to remain stable at 5.3%. Let us see how the outcome shapes up and whether it can affect the GBPUSD pair or not moving ahead.