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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • AUD/USD extended its decline below the 0.7740 and 0.7700 support levels.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 0.7690 on the 4-hours chart.
  • The US ADP employment increased 517K in March 2021, up from 176K.
  • The US ISM Manufacturing Index could increase 60.8 to 61.3 in March 2021.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Aussie Dollar extended its decline below the 0.7700 support against the US Dollar. AUD/USD even traded below 0.7600 before it found support near 0.7560.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as low as 0.7563 before correcting higher. It settled below the 0.7700 pivot level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

On the upside, there is major resistance forming near the 0.7700 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7690 on the same chart.

The trend line coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7849 high to 0.7563 low. The 100 SMA is also near the trend line and 0.7700. Therefore, a break above the 0.7700 level could spark a steady increase towards 0.7740 and 0.7780.

On the downside, the pair might remain supported near the 0.7560 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 0.7500 support zone.

Fundamentally, the US ADP Employment Change for March 2021 was released yesterday by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The market was looking for an increase of 550K.

The actual result was lower than the forecast, as the US ADP employment increased 517K in March 2021. The last reading was revised up from 117K to 176K.

Overall, AUD/USD could face hurdles near 0.7700 in the near term. Besides, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are still trading in a bearish zone below 1.1850 and 1.3880 respectively.

Economic Releases

  • Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for March 2021 - Forecast 66.6, versus 66.6 previous.
  • Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI March 2021 – Forecast 62.4, versus 62.4 previous.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI for March 2021 – Forecast 57.9, versus 57.9 previous.
  • US Manufacturing PMI for March 2021 – Forecast 59.0, versus 59.0 previous.
  • US ISM Manufacturing Index for March 2021 – Forecast 61.3, versus 60.8 previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 680K, versus 684K previous.