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Commodities continue higher, but USD recovery limit gains

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Nick Goold

Gold

Gold surged higher at the start of the week as speculators continued to return as strong buyers targeting $2,000 and higher. Following the break above the $1937 resistance earlier in the month, traders forecast trend following conditions to continue.

The market failed to move above resistance from late May this year as better-than-expected US economic data strengthened the USD. The market attempted twice to break resistance, but with a large gap from the 10-day moving average, further buying interest was limited.

This week will see the US Federal Reserve most likely increase official interest rates by 0.25% to the highest level since 2001. Bullish gold traders will be hoping the comments following the interest rate rise are not hawkish regarding future interest rate rises. The bull market is still strong in the medium term and likely to continue. In the short term, further weakness is possible for prices below the 10-day moving average at the start of the week as traders wait for the Federal Reserve and more US data at the end of the week.

Gold daily chart July 22

Resistance: 1984, 2000, 2032, 2050, 2080

Support: 1938, 1900, 1889, 1870, 1830

WTI

WTI continued to gain in the past week finding strong support at the 10-day moving average. The recent stronger-than-expected US data and lower inflation are seeing oil analysts increase their price forecasts for the second half of 2023.

Slower-than-expected growth than expected by the Chinese economy is dampening sentiment. Also, many traders are watching the 200-day moving average, which has provided resistance in the past two weeks.

While the uptrend looks strong with the market below 77.50 resistance, short-term traders could find good selling opportunities at the start of the week. Medium-term traders should continue to expect higher levels and could see a chance to join the uptrend should prices return to $75.00 support.

XTI daily chart July 22

Resistance: 79.00, 82.50

Support: 75.00, 70.00, 67.00, 65.00, 64.00, 62.00

Great