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Crude Oil Price At Risk of Major Decline, Fed Decision Next

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil prices saw swing moves in tense times and the Israel-Hamas war.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $84.70 on the 4-hour chart.
  • Gold prices could extend gains toward the $2,050 level.
  • The Fed interest rate decision is scheduled today (forecast 5.5%, versus 5.5% previous).

 

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

In the past few days, Crude oil prices saw bearish moves amid the Israel-Hamas war. There was a steady decline below the $86.50 and $85.00 support levels. On the war front, Netanyahu ruled out ceasefire on day 25. Besides, Israel escalated attacks on Hamas terrorists within the Islamists’ extensive network of tunnels beneath Gaza.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled below the $85.00 pivot level, the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

It seems like the bulls are struggling to protect the key support at $82.50. The next support is at $81.70, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline. In the stated case, the price could dive toward the $78.50 support. Any more losses might call for a test of the $76.50 support zone.

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $84.50 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $84.70 on the same chart.

The next major resistance is near the $85.00 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher. In the stated case, it could even visit the $87.75 resistance.

Looking at gold prices, there was a consolidation phase near the $2,000 level and the bulls might now aim for more upside.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US ISM Manufacturing Index for Oct 2023 – Forecast 49.0, versus 49.0 previous.
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision - Forecast 5.5%, versus 5.5% previous.