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Crude Oil Price Could See Swing Moves Due To Israel-Hamas War

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil prices opened with a gap higher after the Israel-Hamas war escalated.
  • It is struggling to clear the $87.00 resistance on the 4-hour chart.
  • Gold prices climbed further higher toward the $1,880 resistance.
  • The US Consumer Price Index could decline from 3.7% to 3.6% in Sep 2023 (YoY).

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

Yesterday, we discussed how Gold and Crude oil prices opened with a gap higher this week due to the Israel-Hamas war. Oil prices climbed above the $85.00 resistance zone before the bears appeared. The death toll is still rising in Israel and the Gaza Strip, as missile attacks continue, and conflicts explode for a sixth day on Thursday.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price spiked toward the $87.00 resistance zone and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). It struggled to continue higher and formed a short-term high at $87.36.

Recently, there was a downside correction below the $86.20 support. The price is now trading well below the $87.00 zone, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

If it continues to move down, the bulls might appear near the gap-close region at $83.30. The next major support sits near the $81.80 zone. Any more losses might call for a test of the $80.50 support zone or a trend change and drop toward the $80.00 support zone.

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $86.20 level. The next major resistance is near the $87.00 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher. In the stated case, it could even visit the $90 resistance.

Looking at gold prices, there was a steady increase above the $1,850 level and the bulls could aim a spike above the $1,880 resistance.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US Consumer Price Index for Sep 2023 (MoM) – Forecast 0.3%, versus +0.6% previous.
  • US Consumer Price Index for Sep 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +3.6%, versus +3.7% previous.
  • US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy for Sep 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +4.1%, versus +4.3% previous.
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