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Crude Oil Price Could Struggle To Recover, Fed Decision Next

Aayush Jindal

Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price is attempting an upside correction from the $64.20 zone.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $70.50 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Gold price started a sharp downside correction from the $2,000 zone.
  • The Fed interest rate decision is scheduled today (forecast 5%, versus 4.75% previous).

 

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

Crude oil price started a fresh decline from the $80.80 resistance against the US Dollar. The price declined below the $75.00 support to move into a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price settled below the $72.00 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

The price even spiked below the $65.00 support and tested the $64.20 zone. A low was formed near $64.19 and the price started an upside correction. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $80.84 swing high to $64.19 low.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $70.50 zone. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $70.50 on the same chart.

The next major resistance is near the $72.50 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $80.84 swing high to $64.19 low. A clear move above the $72.50 resistance could open the doors for another steady increase towards $75 or even $78.

An immediate support is now forming near the $66.50 zone. The next major support sits near the $64.20 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $62.00 support zone in the coming days.

Looking at gold price, there was a sharp bearish reaction from the $2,000 zone and the price declined below the $1,965 support.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK Consumer Price Index for Feb 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +9.8%, versus +10.1% previous.
  • UK Core Consumer Price Index for Feb 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +5.8%, versus +5.8% previous.
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision - Forecast 5%, versus 4.75% previous.