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Crude Oil Price Dives Below $70, US ADP Employment Report Next

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price started a fresh decline below the $72 support.
  • It traded below a key bullish trend line with support near $71.80 on the 4-hour chart.
  • EUR/USD is still at risk of a move toward 1.0620.
  • The US ADP employment could change by 170K in May 2023, down from 296K.


Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

Crude oil price struggled to clear the $75 resistance against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline and traded below the key $72 support.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price traded below a key bullish trend line with support near $71.80. There was a close below the $70 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The price spiked below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63.79 swing low to the $74.73 high. On the downside, initial support is near the $66.40 level.

The next major support sits near the $65.00 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $62.00 support zone in the coming days.

On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $70.50 level. The next key resistance is near $72.00 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is moving lower and there is now a risk of a downside break below the 1.0620 support zone.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 235K, versus 229K previous.
  • US ISM Manufacturing Index for May 2023 – Forecast 47.0, versus 47.1 previous.
  • US ADP Employment Change for May 2023 - Forecast 170K, versus 296K previous.