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Crude Oil Price Hits New 7-Year High, Gold Struggles

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price started a fresh rally above $75.00 and $78.00.
  • It broke a key contracting triangle at $76.25 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
  • The US ISM Services PMI increased from 61.7 to 61.9 in Sep 2021.
  • The US ADP employment could change 428K in Sep 2021, up from the last 374K.


Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After trading close to $76.50, crude oil price corrected lower against the US Dollar. However, the price found support near $73.25 and started a fresh increase.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price broke many hurdles near $75.00 to start a fresh increase. There was also a break above a key contracting triangle at $76.25 on the same chart.

The price settled above the $78.00 level, the 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red) and the 200 simple moving average (4-hours, green). It even traded to a new 7-year high above $79.50.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $80.50 level. The next major resistance is near the $82.50 level, above which the price could rise towards the $85.00 level.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $77.80 level. The first major support is near $76.20. Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the $75.00 support.

Fundamentally, the US ISM Services Index was released yesterday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was looking for a drop from 61.7 to 60 in Sep 2021.

However, the actual result was positive, as the US ISM Services PMI increased from 61.7 to 61.9 in Sep 2021. Besides, the US ISM Services New Orders Index increased from 63.2 to 62.3.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to recover above 1.1650 and it remains at a risk of more downsides. Besides, GBP/USD is showing positive signs above 1.3550.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2021 (YoY) - Forecast +0.4%, versus +3.1% previous.
  • Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2021 (MoM) - Forecast +0.8%, versus -2.3% previous.
  • US ADP Employment Change for Sep 2021 - Forecast 428K, versus 374K previous.