(function() { var didInit = false; function initMunchkin() { if(didInit === false) { didInit = true; Munchkin.init('105-GAR-921'); } } var s = document.createElement('script'); s.type = 'text/javascript'; s.defer = true; s.src = '//munchkin.marketo.net/munchkin.js'; s.onreadystatechange = function() { if (this.readyState == 'complete' || this.readyState == 'loaded') { initMunchkin(); } }; s.onload = initMunchkin; document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(s); })();(function(h,o,t,j,a,r){ h.hj=h.hj||function(){(h.hj.q=h.hj.q||[]).push(arguments)}; h._hjSettings={hjid:1422437,hjsv:6}; a=o.getElementsByTagName('head')[0]; r=o.createElement('script');r.defer=1; r.src=t+h._hjSettings.hjid+j+h._hjSettings.hjsv; a.appendChild(r); })(window,document,'https://static.hotjar.com/c/hotjar-','.js?sv=');

Crude Oil Price Recovery Won’t Be Easy, Hurdles Nearby

Article background

Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price found support near $95.50 and corrected higher.
  • It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Gold price could extend losses below $1,890 and $1,880.
  • The US GDP could grow 1.1% in Q1 2022 (Prelim), down from 6.9%.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After facing rejection near $109.55, crude oil price started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The price traded below the $105 support to move into a short-term bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price traded below the $100 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

It traded as low as $95.56 before the bulls appeared. The price started an upside correction above the $98 and $99 levels. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the same chart.

However, the price faced resistance near $102.50 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $109.55 swing high to $95.56 low.

The main resistance on the upside is near the $104.20 level. A clear move above the $104.20 resistance zone could open the doors for a steady move towards the $110 resistance level. The next major resistance might be near the $115 level.

If there is no upside break, the price could start another decline below $98. The next major support is near $95.50, below which there is a risk of a move towards the $93.25 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $85 support.

Looking at the gold price, the bears remained active below the $1,920 level. A close below $1,890 and $1,880 might spark a sharp decline.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (YoY) – Forecast +7.2%, versus +7.3% previous.
  • German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (MoM) – Forecast +0.6%, versus +2.52% previous.
  • US Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 1.1% versus previous 6.9%.
Great