Crude Oil Price Recovery Won’t Be Easy, Hurdles Nearby
- Crude oil price found support near $95.50 and corrected higher.
- It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the 4-hours chart.
- Gold price could extend losses below $1,890 and $1,880.
- The US GDP could grow 1.1% in Q1 2022 (Prelim), down from 6.9%.
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
After facing rejection near $109.55, crude oil price started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The price traded below the $105 support to move into a short-term bearish zone.
Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price traded below the $100 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).
It traded as low as $95.56 before the bulls appeared. The price started an upside correction above the $98 and $99 levels. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the same chart.
However, the price faced resistance near $102.50 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $109.55 swing high to $95.56 low.
The main resistance on the upside is near the $104.20 level. A clear move above the $104.20 resistance zone could open the doors for a steady move towards the $110 resistance level. The next major resistance might be near the $115 level.
If there is no upside break, the price could start another decline below $98. The next major support is near $95.50, below which there is a risk of a move towards the $93.25 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $85 support.
Looking at the gold price, the bears remained active below the $1,920 level. A close below $1,890 and $1,880 might spark a sharp decline.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (YoY) – Forecast +7.2%, versus +7.3% previous.
- German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (MoM) – Forecast +0.6%, versus +2.52% previous.
- US Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 1.1% versus previous 6.9%.