Nick Goold
Stock markets and the USD rose at the start of the week after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause in tariff hikes, lifting investor sentiment. U.S. equities rallied throughout the week, now recording gains since the start of the year. Japanese equities finished flat as a stronger yen weighed on exporters and a sharper-than-expected 0.2% contraction in Q1 GDP raised concerns about economic growth.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose early in the week as traders increased rate hike expectations, but gains reversed after U.S. PPI and CPI data came in slightly below forecasts. USD/JPY surged on Monday, continuing its recent rise, but later faced profit-taking pressure and ended the week lower. Gold faced continued selling pressure as trade war fears subsided, while crude oil posted a modest gain, supported by improved global sentiment following the U.S.–China agreement.
Bitcoin attempted to break above key resistance at $105,000 but failed to sustain momentum, trading sideways for most of the week. With few new announcements on trade talks beyond the initial U.S.–China news, markets were relatively quiet after Monday’s surge, awaiting further developments on negotiations with other countries.
Markets This Week
U.S. Stocks
This week looks quiet for U.S. markets, with no big news expected. That means the recent uptrend could continue, as investors keep returning to stocks. The 10-day moving average is rising and should act as support around $41,750, with extra support at $41,000 and $40,500. If the rally picks up speed, watch for resistance near $42,500, $42,800, and $43,000. It’s a good time to focus on buying, but be ready to act quickly if the mood changes.
Japanese Stocks
The Nikkei 225 has bounced back well since April, but it didn’t rise much last week compared to U.S. markets. Weak GDP data reminded investors that Japan’s economy is still struggling. A stronger USD/JPY might help the market a little, but it may not last long. If the index drops below the 10-day moving average, more selling could follow. Support is at 37,000円, 36,500円, and 36,000円, with resistance at 39,000円 and 40,000円. This week, selling on rallies or if support breaks could be a good approach.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY looked like it might reach 150.00, but it hit selling pressure after weaker U.S. inflation data. Also, Japan’s weak economy makes it hard for the Bank of Japan to raise rates, which may keep the yen under pressure. If buyers step back in, the pair could climb toward 148.00 and 150.00. Key support is at 145.00, 144.00, and 143.00. This week, buying near support levels could work well if the uptrend continues.
Gold
Gold started the week strong but couldn’t hold gains as traders moved away from safe havens. The 10-day moving average is pointing lower, and with not much news expected, gold may trade in a range or drift lower. Resistance is at $3,250, $3,300, and $3,350, while support is at $3,150, $3,100, and $3,050. For now, range trading or focusing on selling looks like the best approach.
Crude Oil
Crude oil moved higher last week on hopes for a U.S.–China trade deal, but it couldn’t break past resistance at $65. The market is still stuck in a $60–$65 range, which is good for short-term trading. The 10-day moving average is holding as support near $60, and a clear break above $65 could lead to bigger gains. Until then, trading within the range is likely the best strategy.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin nearly broke above $105,000 early last week, helped by stronger investor confidence. But after a big run-up since April, many traders took profits, and the price stayed in a tight range. The longer-term trend is still up, so look for buying chances on dips. Key support is at $100,000, $95,000, $92,500, and $90,000. Resistance is at $105,000 and $110,000.
This Week’s Focus
Tuesday: RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thursday: U.S. Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Existing Home Sales
Friday: Japan CPI, U.S. New Home Sales
This week looks likely to be quiet, but markets are still on alert in case President Trump makes an unexpected announcement. Focus will remain on Washington, where the administration is preparing to send letters to key trading partners — including Japan, South Korea, and India — which could outline the next steps in trade talks. While important economic data like Japan’s CPI and U.S. housing numbers will be watched, political news could have a bigger impact on the markets.
Read the Market, Win the Race
Trading forex is like racing through a high-speed track — every day is different, and you never know when a sharp turn or slippery banana peel might appear. Some days the market runs straight and fast like a racetrack with long straights. Other days, it jerks back and forth like a winding road filled with corners. Your job as a trader is not to predict every twist — but to adapt to the track in front of you.
The best traders don’t have magic systems. What they do have is the ability to read the road, adjust their strategy, and stay mentally prepared — every single day.
🏁 Every Day Is a New Track — Don’t Drive Blind
Losing traders often repeat the same mistakes. They try to use the same strategy regardless of whether the market is trending or ranging. That’s like trying to win every racetrack with the same car setup — it just doesn’t work.
Winning traders take time before the race begins. They ask:
- Is the market making higher highs and higher lows? → That’s an uptrend.
- Is it making lower highs and lower lows? → That’s a downtrend.
- Is price bouncing between support and resistance with no clear direction? → That’s a range.
- Are there major news events today that could change everything?
💡 Lesson: Don’t just show up and trade. Study the track first. Know what kind of day you're facing.
🧠 Mental Rehearsal: The Edge You Need
Great athletes don’t wait until game time to start thinking. They visualize success. They rehearse different outcomes and how they’ll respond.
As a trader, ask yourself each morning:
- What kind of day is likely — trend or range?
- What would make me change my plan mid-trade?
- How will I stay calm and focused if the unexpected happens?
- This is how you build emotional strength and clarity. You won’t be shaken when the market surprises you — because you already practiced staying in control.
💡 Lesson: Great trading is 50% strategy and 50% mindset. Prepare both.
🧭 Choose the Right Strategy for the Track
Let’s look at the two most common market types and how to trade them well.
📈 Trend Trading – Ride the Wave with Confidence
Trend trading is like catching a tailwind — if you time it right, the market carries you to profit.
- Be patient — Trends don’t happen all the time. Wait for a quality entry.
- Low win rate is OK — Winning just 3 or 4 out of 10 trades is fine if your profits are bigger than your losses.
- Let winners run — Hold strong trades longer instead of taking small profits.
- Simple tool: A 10-period moving average on a 5-minute or 15-minute chart. Buy near the MA when it’s pointing up. Sell when it breaks below.
📝 Example: USD/JPY is rising after strong U.S. data. You wait for a pullback to the moving average, and as price bounces back up, you enter — aiming for a big move, not just a few pips.
💡 Lesson: Don’t fear losses. One strong trend trade can make your week.
📉 Range Trading – Fast Thinking, Focused Execution
Range trading is like weaving through tight traffic — it’s all about timing and discipline.
- Enter near support or resistance — Sell high, buy low within the range.
- Higher win rate — You might win 6 or 7 trades out of 10.
- But watch out — If the market breaks out, get out quickly or you’ll take a big loss.
- Simple tool: Bollinger Bands. If price hits the upper band and closes back inside, that’s often a sell signal. Vice versa for a buy.
📝 Example: EUR/USD is bouncing between 1.0850 and 1.0900. Price touches 1.0900 and drops back — a sign to sell, targeting a move back to 1.0850.
💡 Lesson: Don’t get greedy. Take profits and reset. Stay sharp and focused.
⚠️ Stay Ready — Conditions Can Change Fast
Even if the day starts slow and range-bound, things can flip quickly. Maybe the Fed makes a surprise comment, or inflation data comes in hot. A quiet day becomes a wild one. That’s why you must stay alert. Watch the news. Set alerts. Know when to switch your strategy from range to trend — or step away entirely.
💡 Lesson: Flexibility beats perfection. Be ready to shift gears.
🔧 Simple Tools. Powerful Results
Forget over-complicated systems. What works is a simple, adaptable setup that fits today’s market.
Trend Strategy Example:
- 10-period moving average.
- Buy near the MA when sloping up, exit when price closes below.
- Can use this on 5-min, 15-min, 1-hour, or daily charts.
Range Strategy Example:
- Bollinger Bands.
- Sell at upper band after reversal, buy at lower band after bounce.
- Use tight stop-losses.
💡 Lesson: Consistency comes from clarity. Use tools you understand and trust.
🏆 Finish the Race Strong — And Dodge the Bananas
There’s no holy grail in trading — no secret system that works every day. The most successful traders are the ones who, each day, adapt, prepare, and stay focused by following a simple routine:
✅ Analyze the market
✅ Pick the right plan for the “track”
✅ Mentally prepare for change
✅ Keep it simple
✅ Avoid emotional trades
✅ And above all… Dodge the Bananas — don’t let unexpected events wipe out your progress
💡 Lesson: Markets will always change — but if you keep learning and stay flexible, you’ll stay ahead of the pack.
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