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EUR/USD Could Resume Increase Above 1.0950

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • EUR/USD corrected lower and tested the 1.0835 support.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.0925 on the 4-hour chart.
  • GBP/USD is finding bids near the 1.2600 support zone.
  • The US ISM Manufacturing Index could increase from 46.9 to 47.2 in June 2023.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a downside correction below the 1.0950 support against the US Dollar. EUR/USD even traded below the 1.0880 level before the bulls appeared.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair found support near the 1.0835 zone. It remained stable and recently started a fresh increase. It is now trading well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours).

It is now consolidating near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0976 swing high to the 1.0935 low. On the upside, the first major resistance is near 1.0925.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0925 on the same chart. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0976 swing high to the 1.0935 low.

If there is a move above the 1.0925 resistance, the pair could rise toward 1.0950. Any more gains might send EUR/USD toward the 1.1010 level.

Immediate support is near the 1.0865 level. The next major support is near the 1.0835 level. If there is a downside break below the 1.0835 support, the pair could decline toward the 1.0750 support.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair corrected lower sharply below the 1.2750 support and retested the 1.2600 support.

Economic Releases

  • Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for June 2023 - Forecast 41, versus 41 previous.
  • Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for June 2023 – Forecast 43.6, versus 43.6 previous.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI for June 2023 – Forecast 46.2, versus 46.2 previous.
  • US Manufacturing PMI for June 2023 – Forecast 46.3, versus 46.3 previous.
  • US ISM Manufacturing Index for June 2023 – Forecast 47.2, versus 46.9 previous.
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