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EUR/USD Gains Bullish Momentum, US NFP Disappoints

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2100 resistance zone.
  • GBP/USD rallied above the 1.4000 resistance, and gold price climbed above $1,830.
  • The US nonfarm payrolls increased 266K in April 2021, down from the last 770K.
  • The US unemployment rate jumped from 6% to 6.1%, whereas the market forecast was 5.8%.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a support base above 1.2000, the Euro started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. EUR/USD climbed above the 1.2050 and 1.2100 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair gained pace after it cleared a connecting bearish trend line at 1.2020. There was a strong close above the main 1.2050 resistance and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

The pair even climbed above the 1.2120 resistance and settled well above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). As a result, the pair cleared the last swing high at 1.2150.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.2200 zone. The next key resistance could be 1.2250. It is near the 1.618 Fib extension level of the key decline from the 1.2150 high to 1.1985 low.

On the downside, the previous resistance near 1.2120 and 1.2100 might provide support. The main support is now forming near the 1.2050 level.

Fundamentally, the US nonfarm payrolls report for April 2021 was released this past Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market was looking for an increase from 916K to 978K.

The actual result was disappointing and a lot lower than the forecast, as the US nonfarm payrolls increased only 266K. Besides, the last reading was revised down from 916K to 770K. More importantly, the US unemployment rate jumped from 6% to 6.1%, whereas the market forecast was 5.8%.

Overall, EUR/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2100 pivot zone. Besides, GBP/USD is also rising and it may soon break the 1.4050 resistance.

Economic Releases

  • ISM-NY Business Conditions Index for April 2021 – Forecast 29.5, versus 37.2 previous.
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