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EUR/USD: Recovery Could Fail Near 1.1650

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • EUR/USD extended its decline below the 1.1600 support.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.1650 on the 4-hours chart.
  • GBP/USD might recover further if it breaks the 1.3650 resistance.
  • USD/JPY extended its increase above the 112.00 resistance.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a major decline from well above 1.1650 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD even traded below 1.1600 and it is showing bearish signs.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair extended its decline below the 1.1600 and 1.1580 levels. The pair settled below 11650, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

A low was formed near 1.1528 and the pair is now consolidating losses. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1600 level.

The first major resistance is near the 1.1625 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1896 swing high to 1.1528 low. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.1650 level.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1650 on the same chart. A clear break above 1.1650 is must for a sustained move higher.

An initial support on the downside is near the 1.1540 level. The next key support is near 1.1525, below which the pair may possibly continue lower towards the 1.1460 level.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair corrected higher above 1.3600, but it is now facing a major resistance near the 1.3650 level.

Economic Releases

  • UK NIESR GDP Estimate for Sep 2021 (3M) - Forecast +3.2%, versus +2.4% previous.
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