Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

WTI price moves continued to lead most markets last week. Better sentiment around the Iran ceasefire pushed WTI lower from the start of the week, while the U.S. dollar weakened and global stock markets moved higher. Market focus stayed mainly on Iran developments, so economic data had less influence on overall price action.

The main economic highlights were lower-than-expected U.S. PPI and weaker U.S. industrial production data. Long-term U.S. interest rates also moved lower as Middle East tensions eased. At the same time, strong U.S. bank earnings supported the view that the U.S. economy is still holding up reasonably well.

Sentiment improved again toward the end of the week. On Friday, comments from the Iranian Foreign Minister that the Strait of Hormuz would remain “completely open” helped reduce market fears further. This pushed the U.S. dollar lower and helped equity markets finish the week with a strong rise.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

U.S. equities posted another strong week, with Friday’s rally helping the market recover all of the losses seen at the start of the Iran conflict. However, weekend news about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to some pullback at the start of this week. As the two-week ceasefire moves closer to its end, markets may also become more cautious. Sentiment can still change quickly on any headline from U.S. or Iranian leaders, but for now, a sideways to slightly lower move looks more likely this week. Resistance levels are at 49,600, 50,000, 50,500 and 51,000. Support is seen at 48,500, 48,000, 47,000, 46,000, and 45,000.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 moved back near the record highs seen earlier this year as tensions in Iran eased and the yen stayed weak. Comments from the Bank of Japan suggesting it may not raise interest rates at the April meeting also helped support stocks. The Nikkei has stayed strong in 2026, but after this latest rise, waiting for a pullback may still be the better strategy. Resistance is seen at 60,000, 60,500, 61,000, 61,500 and 62,000, while support is at 57,000, 56,000, 55,000, 54,000, and 52,000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY moved lower last week as falling WTI prices and lower long-term U.S. interest rates put pressure on the pair, while resistance at 160 stayed strong. At the same time, the Bank of Japan remained cautious about raising interest rates, which helped buyers return when the pair dropped quickly on Friday. Overall, USD/JPY still looks stuck in a range with a slight downward bias, so range trading remains the better short-term approach. Resistance is at 160.00, 160.50, 162, and 165, while support is seen at 158.00, 157.50, 156.50 and 155.00.

Gold

After testing lower at the start of the week, gold rose steadily as lower long-term U.S. interest rates helped support the market. Trading conditions stayed fairly quiet as many traders focused more on other markets. Gold did meet resistance near the highs from early April, but the uptrend is still in place, so buying on dips remains the preferred strategy as the market moves toward a possible return to $5,000. Resistance is at $4,900, $5,000, and $5,100, while support is at $4,700, $4,600, $4,500, and $4,400.

Crude Oil

WTI moved lower through most of last week as the market reacted to ongoing negotiations to end the war in Iran. Friday’s news that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened added more pressure and encouraged stronger selling. However, weekend reports of another closure are likely to bring buyers back at the start of the week, as the Middle East situation remains very unstable. Headlines will continue to move WTI sharply, but with hopes that the war may eventually move toward an end, selling into strong rallies may be the better strategy this week. Resistance is at $90, $95, $100, $110, and $120, while support is at $80, $75, $70, and $67.5.

Bitcoin

Improved risk sentiment as tensions in Iran eased helped give buyers more confidence, pushing Bitcoin above resistance at $75,000. The market has now broken out of the $65,000 to $75,000 range, and the 10-day moving average is turning higher. For now, buying on dips looks like the better strategy. Resistance is at $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000 while support is at $75,000, $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: None
Tuesday: Japan Adjusted Trade Balance, U.K Unemployment Rate, E.U ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. Retail Sales and Pending Home Sales
Wednesday: Japan Trade Balance, U.K. CPI and PPI
Thursday: Japan S&P Global Services PMI, Australia Unemployment Rate, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Friday: Japan National Core CPI, U.K. Retail Sales, U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Weekend news about the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to create a busy start to the week and reduce hopes that the conflict in Iran will end quickly. Markets are expected to stay focused on WTI price moves and react quickly to new headlines. U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence may also affect sentiment, as traders watch whether higher oil prices are starting to hurt the consumer outlook and broader economic expectations.