Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

Markets continued to absorb the impact of this month’s U.S. interest rate cut as the U.S. dollar, which weakened early in the week, rebounded sharply toward the end on stronger-than-expected Durable Goods Orders and GDP data. U.S. equities hit fresh record highs before drifting lower on profit-taking, as investors locked in gains after the recent rally.

In Japan, the Nikkei failed to advance as concerns over the Bank of Japan’s planned ETF sales kept sentiment cautious. BoJ meeting minutes signaled a careful approach to further tightening, which, combined with strong U.S. economic data, added to yen weakness and underscored expectations of only gradual policy adjustments.

Elsewhere, gold extended its bull run on safe-haven demand and expectations of easier global monetary policy. Bitcoin came under pressure, retreating as profit-taking selling weighed on the cryptocurrency market, highlighting a more selective risk appetite across commodities and digital assets.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

After setting fresh record highs early last week, the Dow faced natural profit-taking following its recent strong gains. Stronger U.S. data later in the week lowered the chances of another quick rate cut, a development seen as slightly negative for equities. Prices briefly dipped below the 10-day moving average but rebounded back above it by week’s end, supported by continued strength in technology shares. With the 10-day moving average still trending upward, buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, while short-term range traders should also find attractive opportunities in the current market. Key resistance is now at 46,500, 47,000, and 48,000, with support at 45,700, 45,000, 44,000, and 43,000.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 tested record highs several times last week, but sentiment stayed cautious as traders focused on the Bank of Japan’s planned ETF sales, a development viewed as negative even though the sales are expected to proceed slowly. Tokyo inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.5%, yet remains elevated, raising the likelihood of an official interest rate hike. After a significant rise through September, a close below the 10-day moving average could signal weakness and create a selling opportunity this week. Key resistance is at 46,000円 and 47,000円, while support is at 45,150円, 45,000円, and 44,000円.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY broke out of its recent range last week as stronger U.S. economic data prompted aggressive buying. Political uncertainty in Japan ahead of the October 4 leadership election also added to yen weakness. Resistance held at 150, with Japanese officials likely to voice concern over the rapid depreciation, which raises the risk of intervention even if action remains unlikely. With the 146–149 range now broken, buying on pullbacks toward 149 is the preferred strategy this week. Key resistance is at 150, 151, and 152, while support is at 149, 148, 146, and 145.

Gold

Gold recorded its seventh consecutive week of gains as the uptrend continued, supported by lower interest rate expectations and steady central bank buying. The market remains overbought, but traders should stay bullish as long as prices hold above the 10-day moving average. Short-term traders may find early-week selling opportunities, as prices remain well above the moving average and stalled multiple times below the $3,800 level last week. Key resistance is now at $3,800 and $3,900, while support stands at $3,700, $3,600, $3,500, and $3,450.

Crude Oil

WTI crude held support at $60 and tested the upper end of its recent range last week, supported by tightening U.S. crude inventories and renewed export disruptions in Kurdistan, Venezuela, and Russia. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data also boosted expectations for oil demand. With resistance still near the highs from earlier in September, range trading remains the preferred short-term strategy, while the medium-term outlook has turned more positive as $60 support has held multiple times. Key resistance is now at $66.5, $70, and $75, with support at $60 and $55.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin came under heavy pressure last week as speculators took profits, triggering a wave of selling after technical indicators turned negative and prices broke below key support at $112,000. In the short term, the market is oversold and remains bearish, making it best to sell into strength near the 10-day moving average, with the potential for a test of $100,000 in the coming weeks. Key resistance is at $112,000, $120,000, and $125,000, while support stands at $105,000 and $100,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: U.S. Pending Home Sales
Tuesday: Japan Industrial Production, Australia Building Approvals and RBA Interest Rate Decision, China Manufacturing PMI, U.K. GDP, E.U. ECB President Lagarde Speaks, U.S. Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Japan Tankan, E.U. CPI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thursday: E.U. Unemployment Rate, U.S.Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders
Friday: Japan au Jibun Bank Services, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, U.K. S&P Global Composite PMI, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

This week the focus will be Friday’s U.S. employment report, as markets look for signs of whether weakness in the U.S. job market is continuing. Ahead of the release, chart signals are likely to drive trading, with the potential for further profit-taking in equities and Bitcoin after recent strong moves. The employment data will be critical for the Federal Reserve, providing a key guide for the timing of the next U.S. interest rate cut and setting the tone for market volatility across currencies, stocks, and commodities.