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GBP/USD at Clear Risk of More Downsides

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • GBP/USD is struggling below the 1.3200 resistance zone.
  • A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.3135 on the 4-hours chart.
  • EUR/USD must stay above 1.0950 to start a fresh increase.
  • The US ISM Services Index could increase from 56.5 to 58.0 in March 2022.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound struggled to stay above the 1.3200 zone against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.3150 support zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair declined below the 1.3180 support level and settled below the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2999 swing low to 1.3298 high.

The pair even traded below 1.3100 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). It tested the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2999 swing low to 1.3298 high.

If the bears remain in control below 1.3150, there is a risk of more downsides. The next major support sits near the 1.3050 level, below which the pair could revisit 1.3000.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.3135 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3135 on the same chart.

The main resistance sits near the 1.3200. A clear move above the 1.3200 zone could set the pace for a move towards 1.3300.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair extended decline below 1.1040. It must stay above the key 1.0950 support level to start a fresh increase. If not, it could dive to 1.0820.

Economic Releases

  • US Goods and Services Trade Balance for Feb 2022 - Forecast $-88.5B, versus $-89.7B previous.
  • US ISM Services Index for March 2022 – Forecast 58.0, versus 56.5 previous.
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