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GBP/USD: Recovery Could Be Capped Near 1.1800

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • GBP/USD declined to a new multi-month low at 1.1649.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.1800 on the 4-hours chart.
  • EUR/USD is consolidating losses above the 0.9900 zone.
  • Crude oil price is rising and there was a clear move above the $95 resistance.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound followed a bearish path below the 1.2000 support against the US Dollar. GBP/USD declined below the 1.1800 support zone to move further into a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair settled below the 1.1800 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

The pair traded to a new multi-month low at 1.1649. Recently, it saw a minor upward move above the 1.1700 resistance zone. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1901 swing high to 1.1649 low.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.1770 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1901 swing high to 1.1649 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1800 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1800 on the same chart. A clear move above the 1.1800 resistance might send the pair higher towards the 1.1950 level or the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

If not, the pair might resume its decline below the 1.1650 level. The next major support is near the 1.1600 level. Any more losses might call for a move towards 1.1500.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is consolidating losses above the 0.9900 level and the bears seem to be active near the 1.0000 zone.

Economic Releases

  • German Consumer Price Index for August 2022 (YoY) (Prelim) – Forecast +7.8%, versus +7.5% previous.
  • German Consumer Price Index for August 2022 (MoM) (Prelim) – Forecast +0.4%, versus +0.9% previous.
  • US Housing Price Index for March 2022 (MoM) - Forecast +1.1%, versus +1.4% previous.
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