Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

Gold moved slightly higher as investors looked for safety amid rising geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin demand stayed weak after its recent sharp fall. In stock markets, U.S. equities struggled despite strong earnings from NVIDIA, as concerns about higher U.S. tariffs and uncertainty over the broader impact of AI on existing business models weighed on sentiment.

Earlier in the week, U.S. consumer confidence came in stronger than expected. However, Friday’s higher-than-expected PPI inflation data had a bigger impact on markets. The data increased concerns that interest rate cuts could be delayed, putting pressure on U.S. stocks and supporting the U.S. dollar.

Geopolitical tensions escalated sharply over the weekend after reports of a joint U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran that killed a senior Iranian leader. On Monday morning, oil and gold prices rose on fears of supply disruptions and rising conflict. The U.S. dollar strengthened, while global stock markets fell as investors reduced risk exposure following developments over the weekend.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

U.S. equity markets ended February on a weak note, and with the recent attacks on Iran, sentiment is likely to remain fragile. Early Monday trading is already testing the February lows. If those levels break, it could trigger faster losses at the start of the week. Short-term traders may consider selling a clear break below the February lows if U.S. markets turn aggressive to the downside. Alternatively, if support holds and buyers step in, a bounce could offer a short-term buying opportunity. Medium-term traders may prefer to wait — either for a recovery toward resistance to sell into strength, or for a confirmed break below the February lows later in the week. Resistance levels are at 49,000, 50,000, and 50,500. Support is seen at 48,300, 48,000, 47,750, and 47,500.

Japanese Stocks

Takaichi’s strong leadership and signs that the Japanese government may lean toward delaying further Bank of Japan rate hikes helped push the Nikkei sharply higher last week, briefly touching 60,000. Although the market saw early selling on Monday due to the Iran conflict, support at the 10-day moving average held, suggesting underlying demand remains firm and downside may be limited. For now, range trading between 57,500 and 60,000 looks like the most practical strategy this week, unless geopolitical risks escalate further. Resistance is seen at 59,000円, 60,000円, and 61,000円, while support is at 57,000円, 56,500円, 56,000円, and 55,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY surprised the market last week, rising strongly on signs that Japanese interest rates may remain low for longer as Takaichi signals support for the economy. This shift in expectations helped weaken the yen and push the pair higher. Early Monday, the conflict in Iran added further strength to the U.S. dollar as investors moved toward safe-haven assets. With the 10-day moving average now turning higher, USD/JPY could continue to test the upside, potentially moving toward 158 as traders watch closely for any signs of Bank of Japan intervention. Resistance is at 157, 158, and 159, while support is seen at 155, 154, 153, and 152.

Gold

Gold moved higher last week as investors worried about rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. The weekend escalation between the U.S. and Iran led to a strong open at the start of the week, with safe-haven demand pushing prices up. In the short term, gold looks slightly overbought, so traders should be careful about chasing higher prices. Waiting for a pullback toward short-term moving averages may offer better entry points while the overall uptrend remains intact. If tensions continue, gold could test record highs in the coming weeks. Resistance is at $5,400, $5,500, and $5,600, while support is at $5,200, $4,900, and $4,850.

Crude Oil

Crude oil closed last week near resistance as traders bought on rising Middle East tensions. They were rewarded at the start of this week, with prices gapping around 10% higher following the U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran. However, prices have already pulled back from the highs, and how far the conflict escalates will likely determine the next move. In the short term, volatility is likely to remain high, and traders may find opportunities by trading against large moves as the market swings sharply. Medium-term traders could look for buying opportunities ahead of the previous highs near $67.5 if tensions remain elevated. Resistance is at $75, $80, and $85, while support is at $67.5, $65, $60, and $55.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continued to drift lower last week, but the lack of aggressive selling kept prices in a range, with buyers holding near $65,000. Trading conditions remain quiet, although the short-term trend is slightly negative as the 10-day moving average continues to point lower. If risk-off sentiment increases due to Middle East tensions, a test of $60,000 is possible this week. Resistance is at $70,000, $75,000, $80,000, and $85,000, while support is at $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: E.U. German Retail Sales and HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.K. Nationwide HPI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: Japan Capital Spending, Australia Current Account, E.U. CPI
Wednesday: Australia GDP, Japan S&P Global Services PMI, China Manufacturing PMI, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI and Unemployment Rate, U.K. S&P Global Services PMI, U.S. S&P Global Services PMI and Beige Book
Thursday: Australia Trade Balance, U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI, E.U. ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting, U.S. Trade Balance and Factory Orders
Friday: E.U. German Factory Orders, U.K. Halifax House Price Index, E.U. GDP, U.S. Retail Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls and Business Inventories

The impact of the conflict in Iran will be the main focus this week, as markets assess whether it leads to further selling of risk assets or is viewed as a contained and expected development with limited broader impact. On the economic side, U.S. employment data on Friday will be the key release to watch, especially after a series of manufacturing data from around the world. The jobs report could influence expectations for interest rates and add to market volatility.