Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

It was a busy week in global markets. The Japanese yen weakened sharply after Sanae Takaichi won the ruling party leadership vote. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes showed that most officials support more interest rate cuts in 2025 because of a weaker job market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is still too high to move faster, and the U.S. government shutdown continued with little market impact.

Gold surged above $4,000, hitting new record highs as investors rushed to safe assets. Central bank buying and expectations of easier global monetary policy helped keep the bull run going. The shutdown continues to delay major U.S. economic reports, including employment data, leaving traders with limited fresh information.

Markets were shocked on Friday when Donald Trump reignited the trade war with China. He announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, on top of the existing 30%, starting November 1, 2025—or sooner if China escalates. The move was a response to China’s tighter export restrictions on rare earth materials, key components in electronics and technology manufacturing. All risk assets fell sharply after the announcement as traders rushed to exit positions and reduce exposure.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow reversed all of its gains from the past two months last Friday after Donald Trump announced new tariffs on China, sparking heavy selling. Markets now hope Trump will strike a quick deal as he has in the past, but with U.S. equities still up strongly this year, more downside remains possible. Predicting Trump’s next move is difficult, but a short-term rebound could occur if the market holds above Friday’s lows. For medium-term traders, buying remains an option since prices are still above July’s record highs, though caution is advised—any new negative headlines could trigger fresh selling. Resistance is now at 46,000, 46,500, 47,000, and 48,000, with support at 45,000, 44,000, and 43,000.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 is likely to come under pressure this week following Monday’s public holiday, as markets react to the U.S.–China trade war and growing political uncertainty after the Komeito Party’s exit from the LDP coalition. Given how far the index has risen recently, there is potential for further weakness if investors panic. In the short term, traders can look for intra-day opportunities in either direction, but with a bias toward selling on large moves. For medium-term traders, it’s best to avoid new buying positions for now and wait until there is progress on U.S.–China trade talks or the LDP forms a new coalition partner. Resistance is at 47,000円 and 48,000円, while support lies at 45,000円, 44,000円, and 43,500円.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY jumped higher last week after Sanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership, as she is seen as dovish and supportive of more stimulus, reducing the chance of rate hikes in Japan. The yen weakened quickly, causing some concern among officials. Later in the week, renewed U.S.–China trade tensions led to a short sell-off, but the pair still finished with strong gains. With uncertainty over whether Takaichi will become prime minister, the market could stay volatile, and some further weakness is possible. Traders may look to buy around 150 with a small stop and sell above 152. Resistance is at 152 and 153, while support is at 150, 149, 148, and 146.

Gold

Gold extended its winning streak, surging above $4,000 as investors continued to buy it as an alternative to holding U.S. dollars. Just when it seemed the market had reached a temporary peak, Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on China pushed prices back above $4,000 again. Looking for higher levels remains the best strategy as long as prices stay above the 10-day moving average. However, there could be short-term selling opportunities if Trump reaches a deal with China and prices drop below the moving average. Resistance is now at $4,100 and $4,200, while support stands at $4,000, $3,900, and $3,800.

Crude Oil

WTI crude fell below $60 support as renewed U.S.–China trade tensions raised concerns about global growth and future oil demand. With the dispute unlikely to be resolved quickly, WTI is expected to stay under pressure, with the next target near $55. For now, selling into strength below the downward-sloping moving average looks like the best strategy. Key resistance is at $60, $66.5, $70, and $75, while support lies at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

After reaching record highs early in the week on expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, Bitcoin reversed sharply lower as U.S.–China trade tensions flared up again. The sell-off was quick and heavy, bringing prices back to the lows from August 2025. In the short term, Bitcoin may see a rebound as long as the market holds above key support at $107,000. Resistance is at $117,000, $120,000, and $125,000, while support stands at $107,000, $105,000, and $100,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: China Trade Balance, U.S. Construction Spending
Tuesday: Australia RBA Meeting Minutes, U.K. Unemployment Rate, E.U. ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday: China CPI and PPI, Japan Industrial Production, E.U. Industrial Production, U.S. CPI, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Beige Book
Thursday: Australia Unemployment Rate, U.K. GDP, Industrial Production and Trade Balance, E.U. Trade Balance, U.S. PPI, Retail Sales and Business Inventories
Friday: E.U. CPI, U.S. Building Permits, Housing Starts and Industrial Production

This week could be very volatile as markets watch how China reacts and whether Donald Trump can reach a deal or if this is the start of the trade war investors have feared all year. Japanese politics will also draw attention as the ruling party looks for partners to stay in power. In the U.S., important data such as inflation and retail sales will be released, giving clues about the next Fed rate cut and likely causing big moves in currencies, stocks, and commodities.