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Gold climbs on expectations of lower U.S. interest rates

Gold

In a week characterized by subdued trading activity, gold prices registered a 1% gain and successfully closed above the critical $2,000 level. The ability of gold to maintain its upward trajectory, even in a week of lesser trading activity, underscores its ongoing interest from traders looking for a solid end to the year.

The recent deterioration of the U.S. has played a crucial role in the rise of gold. Spurred by weaker-than-expected economic data, the USD index's decline follows speculation about a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance towards a more dovish approach. This shift is significant as it typically results in lower interest rates, which can decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, thereby making gold more attractive. Furthermore, the continuing decline in the yield of U.S. 10-year bonds creates a bullish environment for gold prices.

Looking ahead, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is difficult to predict, so traders are increasingly focusing on the likelihood of lower U.S. interest rates in the future. The week ahead promises many opportunities for gold traders, with many eyeing a potential break above October's highs. Given the current technical and fundamental uptrends, caution is advised against selling ahead of resistance, as this could prove risky. Instead, focusing on buying opportunities looks to be a good strategy, aligning with gold's bullish sentiment in the current market climate.

金チャート11月25日

Resistance: 2010, 2050, 2070, 2080

Support: 1984, 1946, 1900, 1884, 1836, 1809

WTI

WTI attempted to rise significantly above the $75 mark but faced challenges due to a strong downtrend last week. Increasing U.S. crude stockpiles has been a key contributor to the pressure on WTI prices. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding China's oil demand and the growth of non-OPEC oil production are further influencing the market, creating a complex environment for WTI traders.

Last week's most notable event was OPEC+ postponing their meeting from November 26th to 30th. This delay initially triggered a 5% drop in WTI prices, only for the market to recover, sparking speculations about potential oil production cuts in 2024. This speculation encouraged buyers to return to the market. Furthermore, there are emerging indications that OPEC+ is progressing towards a compromise with African oil-producing countries regarding production levels for 2024. Such developments are crucial in shaping the future trajectory of WTI prices, as OPEC+ decisions significantly impact global oil supply dynamics.

On the geopolitical front, the initiation of a truce in the Gaza Strip, aimed at facilitating the exchange of hostages between Israel and Hamas, saw sellers push oil prices lower. The current downturn is still strong, but support around $75 remains, so range trading could be the best strategy this week.

原油チャート11月25日

Resistance: 80.00, 85.10, 88.50, 94.00

Support: 75.00, 70.00