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Gold Rebound Looks Fragile, Upside May Fade Quickly

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Gold started a recovery wave from the $4,100 zone.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,850 on the 4-hour chart.
  • WTI Crude Oil started a consolidation phase below the $95 and $98 resistance levels.
  • Bitcoin could start a fresh increase if it settles above $72,500.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold finally found some support near $4,100 against the US Dollar. The price started a decent recovery wave above $4,300 and $4,400.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price was able to climb above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,419 swing high to the $4,098 low. However, the price is still well below the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).

On the upside, immediate resistance is $4,600. The next major resistance sits near $4,750 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,419 swing high to the $4,098 low.

The main resistance could be near the trend line at $4,850. A clear move above $4,850 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $5,000 or the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), above which the price could test $5,200.

If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $4,435 level. The first major support sits at $4,300, below which the price might slide to $4,120.

The main support sits at $4,000. Any more losses might call for a test of $3,880 or even $3,850 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price remained supported above $80 and might start a fresh increase if it settles above $95.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 210K, versus 205K previous.
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