Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

The market continued to analyze the previous week’s poor U.S. employment data, which boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Focus then turned to tariff negotiations as President Trump announced new duties on multiple countries, including Switzerland and Brazil. Switzerland’s gold exports to the U.S. will now face a 39% tariff, driving safe-haven demand and pushing gold higher. Trump’s team is also searching for the next Fed Chair, with speculation that the choice will favor lower interest rates. U.S. PMI data beat expectations, providing support for the dollar.

In the UK, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.25% as anticipated, but the decision was closer than expected, with several policymakers opposing the move. This surprise dissent helped the pound strengthen despite the cut. Meanwhile, U.S. equities staged a strong recovery, led by gains in technology stocks on optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.

The U.S. dollar tested lower, continuing the weakness from the U.S. employment data, but found support late in the week and closed near its highs. Gold extended gains on the Swiss tariff news, while risk sentiment improved as investors balanced ongoing trade tensions with positive U.S. earnings reports.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

U.S. equities recovered last week, reversing the losses from the weak employment data as better-than-expected earnings eased fears over new tariffs. Many companies producing in the U.S. were exempted from the harshest measures, while expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also supported sentiment. The rebound is encouraging, but the Dow continues to lag behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the 10-day moving average still pointing lower. Sideways movement in the Dow is likely to continue in the near term. Resistance levels are at 44,000, 44,500, and 45,000, while support lies at 44,000, 43,000, 42,000, and 41,750.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 surged over 4% last week, returning close to historical highs as optimism grew that trade with the U.S. will be more favorable for the Japanese economy than initially expected. Strong earnings, particularly from SoftBank, also helped lift the index. The strength of the rally surprised the market and is positive for the medium-term outlook. However, in the short term the market appears overbought and remains below key resistance at historical highs, making it preferable to wait for a pullback before buying. Resistance is seen at 42,474円 and 43,000円, while support lies at 41,500円, 41,000円, and 40,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY spent the week trading sideways as the shock of the poor U.S. employment data kept volatility low. The market is now focused on signals of when Japan might raise interest rates and when the U.S. could start lowering rates. Support held last week, with the 10-day moving average pointing sideways. Range trading remains the preferred strategy this week, with U.S. inflation data in focus. Resistance is at 148, 149, and 150, while support is at 147, 146, and 145.

Gold

It was a strong week for gold prices as expectations of lower U.S. interest rates and ongoing tariff tensions encouraged buying. The latest gains were driven largely by the U.S. decision to impose steep tariffs—up to 39%—on certain Swiss gold bars, pushing U.S. gold futures to record highs. Gold remains within the wide $3,250 to $3,450 range but shows signs of breaking resistance in the coming sessions, making buying on dips the preferred strategy. Resistance is at $3,450, while support is at $3,350, $3,300, and $3,250.

Crude Oil

WTI crude closed below the key $65 support last week, falling every day on concerns over weaker global demand from new U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and fears of oversupply following OPEC+ output increases. Hopes for a potential diplomatic resolution between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine conflict also encouraged selling. With the market now below $65, a test of $60 and potentially lower is expected. Conditions are slightly oversold, so selling into strength remains the preferred strategy. Resistance is seen at $65, $70, and $75, while support is at $60 and $55.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rose over the week as buying support emerged near the previous record highs around $112,000, helped by improved risk sentiment. While new tariffs are seen as a negative for Bitcoin, the 10-day moving average is pointing sideways, suggesting limited upside in the short term. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive, making buying on weakness the preferred strategy. Resistance is at $120,000, $125,000, and $150,000, with support at $112,000, $110,000, and $105,000.

This Week’s Focus

Tuesday: Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision, U.K. Unemployment Rate, E.U. ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. CPI
Thursday: Australian Unemployment Rate, U.K. GDP, E.U. GDP, U.S. PPI, U.S. Jobless Claims
Friday: Japan GDP, Japan Industrial Production, U.S. Retail Sales, U.S. Industrial Production, U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment

This week, traders will be watching important U.S. economic data, with both inflation and retail sales reports expected to have a big impact on market direction. Another key focus is the U.S.–China trade situation, as the two countries have not yet agreed to extend their 90-day tariff truce, which is due to expire on August 12. This deadline, and any new trade headlines, could quickly change market sentiment and drive sharp moves.

Markets are also paying close attention to discussions over the next U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, as President Trump looks to influence the Fed’s approach to interest rates. With prices stuck in a range last week, the mix of key data releases, trade deadlines, and political developments means this could be an active week with plenty of short-term trading opportunities as the market searches for a breakout.