Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

It was a relatively quiet week in the markets, although the mid-week end of the U.S. government shutdown helped drive U.S. equities to fresh record highs and pushed USD/JPY briefly above 155. Despite the relief, concerns about stretched valuations — especially in AI-related stocks — continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Toward the end of the week, several Federal Reserve policymakers warned that U.S. interest rates may not fall as quickly as many had hoped. This shift in expectations triggered selling across equities and other risk assets. The probability of a rate cut after the Fed’s December meeting has now dropped to around 50%, down sharply from about 67% a week ago and nearly 95% a month ago.

The shutdown has also delayed the release of key U.S. economic data, leaving markets with fewer important indicators to digest. However, traders showed renewed interest in safe havens, with gold surging sharply early in the week. In contrast, Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 as investors reduced exposure to high-risk assets.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow Index hit new highs last week but ended back below its 10-day moving average as investors stayed cautious about high valuations. In the current sentiment, focusing on selling opportunities remains the preferred short-term approach, though traders should avoid selling into weakness, as a major crash seems unlikely without significantly negative news. Resistance levels are at 47,500, 48,000, 48,500, and 49,000, while support lies at 46,500, 46,000, 45,500, 45,000, and 44,500.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 traded sideways last week, as yen weakness helped support prices, but falling U.S. stocks limited gains. The market is still waiting for the new Japanese prime minister to announce an economic stimulus package, which could drive a move to new highs. For now, upward momentum has stalled, and technical indicators are pointing slightly lower, so a short-term test to the downside is likely unless stimulus is confirmed. Resistance is at 51,500円, 52,000円, and 53,000円, while support is at 50,000円, 49,000円, 48,500円, and 47,000円.

USD/JPY

Despite ongoing fears of intervention to support the yen, USD/JPY pushed higher last week as traders expect any Bank of Japan rate hike to be delayed until January. The 155 level remains key, and reduced market risk appetite led to some selling toward the end of the week. The overall uptrend is still intact, supported by higher U.S. interest rates compared to Japan, but further gains may be difficult, making a 153–155 range-trading strategy the most suitable for now. Resistance is at 155, 156, and 157, while support is at 153.5, 153, and 151.5.

Gold

Gold had a very strong start to last week, rising sharply as safe-haven demand increased. However, as the probability of a U.S. rate cut next month fell, some of those gains were trimmed toward the end of the week. The chart has now turned positive, and buying remains the preferred strategy as long as the market stays above $4,000. Resistance is at $4,200, $4,250, and $4,350, while support is at $4,050, $4,000, and $3,925.

Crude Oil

WTI remained under pressure last week after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned about rising oversupply, while ongoing concerns over U.S. economic growth also kept prices capped. With the 10-day moving average still trending lower, selling remains the preferred strategy this week. Key chart levels are unchanged, with resistance at $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, and support at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

As risky assets sold off late last week, Bitcoin fell below the key $100,000 level, triggering a sharp decline. With little support below this level, the risk of further falls is high, and many speculators are exiting positions. As long as Bitcoin stays under $100,000, the market is likely to remain weak, so selling remains the preferred strategy. Resistance is at $100,000, $106,000, and $116,000, while support is at $95,000, $90,000, and $85,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: Japan GDP and Industrial Production, U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: Australia RBA Meeting Minutes, U.S. Industrial Production
Wednesday Japan Trade Balance, U.K. CPI and PPI, E.U. CPI, U.S. Building Permits and FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing and Existing Home Sales
Friday: Japan National CPI, U.K. Retail Sales and S&P Global Manufacturing, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Volatility could rise this week as traders look for clues on possible rate cuts from Fed speeches and the release of FOMC meeting minutes. In Japan, GDP and CPI data will be important as the BoJ decides whether to raise rates, and the weak yen remains in focus. With the U.S. government shutdown now over, stock and risk markets are hoping for positive news to avoid more selling in a nervous market.

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