(function() { var didInit = false; function initMunchkin() { if(didInit === false) { didInit = true; Munchkin.init('105-GAR-921'); } } var s = document.createElement('script'); s.type = 'text/javascript'; s.defer = true; s.src = '//munchkin.marketo.net/munchkin.js'; s.onreadystatechange = function() { if (this.readyState == 'complete' || this.readyState == 'loaded') { initMunchkin(); } }; s.onload = initMunchkin; document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(s); })();(function(h,o,t,j,a,r){ h.hj=h.hj||function(){(h.hj.q=h.hj.q||[]).push(arguments)}; h._hjSettings={hjid:1422437,hjsv:6}; a=o.getElementsByTagName('head')[0]; r=o.createElement('script');r.defer=1; r.src=t+h._hjSettings.hjid+j+h._hjSettings.hjsv; a.appendChild(r); })(window,document,'https://static.hotjar.com/c/hotjar-','.js?sv=');

NZD/USD Recovery Stalls While Oil Price Climbs Higher

Article background

Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • NZD/USD failed to recover above the 0.5800 resistance zone.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 0.5750 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Crude oil price started a steady increase above the $85.00 resistance zone.
  • The US Initial Jobless Claims could increase from 193K to 200K.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar found support near 0.5565 after a strong decline against the US Dollar. NZD/USD formed a base and started a recovery wave above 0.5600.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was able to recover above the 0.5620 and 0.5640 resistance levels. The pair even spiked above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6161 swing high to 0.5564 low.

However, the pair failed to recover above the 0.5800 resistance zone. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.5750 on the same chart.

An immediate resistance is near the 0.5750 level and the trend line, above which the pair could test the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

The next major resistance is near the 0.5860 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6161 swing high to 0.5564 low. A clear move above the 0.5860 level might send the pair towards the 0.5900 level.

The next major hurdle could be near the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.5640 level. The main support sits at the 0.5600 level.

A downside break below the 0.5600 zone might send the pair towards the 0.5565 level. The next major support is near the 0.5500 level, below which the pair could even test the 0.5420 support zone.

Looking at crude oil price, there was a decent increase above the $85 level and it seems like the bulls are aiming a move towards $90.

Economic Releases

  • Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2022 (YoY) - Forecast -1.7%, versus -0.9% previous.
  • Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2022 (MoM) - Forecast -0.4%, versus +0.3% previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 200K, versus 193K previous.
Great