Nick Goold
Last week there were Easter holidays, but markets were still volatile as countries began talks with the U.S. ahead of a new 90-day tariff deadline. The U.S. dollar stayed weak and equities dropped sharply again yesterday, continuing a trend of investor concern this year. Investors are worried about U.S. economic policy, especially the damage new tariffs could cause. There is also concern over President Trump’s growing attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could threaten the independence of the central bank.
The U.S. has been promoting progress in trade talks with Japan as a model for future deals. However, Japan’s economic minister Ryosei Akazawa left Washington on Friday without reaching an agreement. Prime Minister Ishiba later said new talks will be held later this month, but for now, a deal still seems far off.
Markets were also shaken by rising tensions with China. Instead of improving, relations worsened after China warned other countries not to make deals with the U.S. that could harm Beijing. As pressure increased, the U.S. dollar hit a three-year low, while gold surged to a new record high above $3,400 per ounce as investors looked for safer places to put their money.
Markets This Week
U.S. Stocks
U.S. stocks are still under pressure as President Trump’s growing fight with the Federal Reserve adds more risk to the market, and there has been no real progress on U.S. tariffs. Trump is unpredictable, so a quick rebound is possible, but for now the market is bearish. The Dow is close to breaking below key support at 38,000, which could lead to a move down to 37,000. Resistance is at 39,000 and 40,000. Until there is more clarity on trade, market volatility is likely to stay high and the downside risk remains.
Japanese Stocks
The Nikkei 225 held up well despite weakness in U.S. stocks and USD/JPY falling below 142. While a trade deal with the U.S. is taking time, sentiment in the Japanese market remains relatively optimistic. But with not much news to push prices higher, big gains seem unlikely for now. Range trading is likely this week, with resistance at 35,000 and support at 33,000.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY broke below 142 as concerns about the independence of the U.S. central bank caused the dollar to weaken against all major currencies. In the short term, the market looks oversold, so waiting for a rebound to sell may be the best approach. The next key target is the important support level at 140, while 142 has now turned into resistance.
Gold
Gold continues to make record highs as a weak U.S. dollar and ongoing market uncertainty create ideal conditions for its rise. The uptrend is strong and difficult to go against right now, so most traders should look to buy on dips. However, short-term traders may consider selling due to the market being overbought, using a small stop loss to manage risk.
Crude Oil
Crude oil found support at $60 and had a good week, showing signs of recovery after recent weakness. The 10-day moving average is now pointing slightly higher, which may signal improving short-term momentum. However, uncertainty about the U.S. economy could make it hard for prices to move much higher. For now, range trading between $60 and $65 looks like the best approach as the market waits for clearer direction.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin had a good week as the $80,000 support held strong, encouraging renewed buying from traders. Resistance remains at $90,000, but with technical indicators pointing higher, the momentum looks positive. Traders should look to buy on weakness, especially around the support zone between $80,000 and $85,000.
This Week’s Focus
Wednesday: U.S. PMI
Thursday: U.S. Durable Goods Orders
Friday: U.S. Consumer Sentiment
Markets will be watching tariff negotiations closely this week, along with daily comments from President Trump. The most closely followed development will be ongoing discussions around the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve and whether further interest rate cuts will be needed to support the economy amid growing tariff concerns. Key economic data, including PMI, durable goods, and consumer sentiment, will give fresh signals on the health of the U.S. economy and guide market direction.
🌟 Why Gold Is Attractive to Trade Right Now
Gold is trading near record highs, making it one of the most closely watched markets today. Several major forces are driving this surge:
- Economic uncertainty is rising due to shifting global trade dynamics and political tensions.
- The U.S. dollar is weakening, especially after the return of Trump’s tariff policy, which has renewed fears of global supply chain disruptions and inflation.
- Investors are seeking safety — and gold remains the go-to safe haven asset when markets become unpredictable.
At the same time, U.S. interest rates are expected to stay steady or even fall, which keeps real yields low — a key condition that favors gold. Since gold pays no interest, it becomes more attractive when yields on bonds and cash are low or negative in real terms.
These macro conditions are creating powerful momentum in the gold market. For traders, this means:
- Strong, sustained trends — ideal for trend-followers
- Increased volatility — great for day traders
- Clear technical setups — breakouts, pullbacks, and reversals
Whether you’re a swing trader or a short-term scalper, the current environment offers some of the best gold trading conditions in years.
🟡 How Gold Trading Is Different from Forex Trading
Gold (XAU/USD) is traded like a currency pair, but it moves very differently. If you’ve traded forex before, you’ll quickly notice that gold behaves in a more aggressive and emotional way. To trade it well, you need to understand how it differs — and why it’s currently one of the most attractive markets for traders.
🔥 Gold Is More Volatile
Gold moves faster than most forex pairs. One reason is that fewer traders are active in gold compared to major currency pairs. That means when large hedge funds or institutions enter the market, their orders have more impact.
Also, gold is more speculative — when price breaks a key level, momentum builds quickly as traders pile in.
📊 Gold Overreacts to News
Gold often reacts strongly to U.S. economic data (like CPI or NFP). Since many traders enter in the same direction at once and liquidity can be lower than in FX, price can overreact, shooting well beyond fair value before pulling back.
📈 Gold Trends Are Stronger
Gold trends tend to be cleaner and last longer than in FX. The market is driven by a few major forces: interest rates, inflation, and USD strength.
Because there’s less noise and fewer conflicting fundamentals than in forex pairs, gold often sticks to a direction once it breaks out, making it ideal for trend-following strategies.
🛠️ Gold Trading Tips: From Basics to Pro-Level Tactics
Gold moves fast, trends strong, and can reverse quickly. It’s rewarding but risky. To trade it well, you need the right tools, mindset, and timing. These tips give you a clear and practical way to improve — whether you're a part-time or full-time trader.
1. 📅 Trade Around Big News
Gold reacts sharply to U.S. economic events like:
✅ Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
✅ CPI (inflation data)
✅ Fed rate decisions
These events can cause huge price swings within seconds.
- Avoid trading in the first 1–3 minutes after the news drops. Price often spikes in both directions and triggers stop-losses.
- Fade the first exaggerated move if it looks overdone
- Or wait for the market to settle, then trade with the new trend
2. 💵 Watch the U.S. Dollar
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars. When the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for international buyers — demand increases, and gold rises.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive globally, reducing demand.
- Watch the Dollar Index (DXY). If the dollar is falling and gold is testing resistance, the odds of a breakout increase.
- If the dollar is rising, gold's upside may be limited.
USD Index Monthly Chart
3. 📉 Watch U.S. Interest Rates
Gold often moves opposite to real yields (interest rates minus inflation). Lower yields make gold more attractive because it doesn’t pay interest.
- If U.S. 10-year yields are falling while inflation expectations are steady or rising, that usually supports a gold rally. Use this to back up your technical trades.
4. 🔀 Trend or Range? Decide First
Some days gold trends. Other days it ranges. Knowing which type of market you’re in helps you avoid bad entries.
Use the 10-bar simple moving average (10 SMA) on your chart:
- If gold is staying above the 10 SMA, it’s likely trending up
- If it’s below, likely trending down
- If it’s crossing back and forth, the market is probably ranging
- Use trend trades in clear markets, and range trades when price is bouncing between support and resistance.
5. 🎯 Manage Profits Smartly
Gold trends can run far — but also reverse fast. Taking profit too early means missing the move. Holding too long can give back your gains.
- Take partial profit at the 1st resistance (or support if short), and more at the 2nd resistance.
- Use a trailing stop below swing lows or above swing highs to protect your gains as the trend continues.
6. 🧭 Use Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
Don’t rely on one chart. A good setup on the 15M may go straight into resistance on the 4H.
- Check the daily or 4-hour chart for overall direction. Then use the 5M or 1H chart to find your entry.
- Only trade against the higher timeframe trend if there’s a very strong reason — like a double top, divergence, or false breakout.
7. 📊 Combine Technical + Fundamental
Gold follows chart patterns, but moves more strongly when fundamentals back it up.
- If gold is breaking resistance while the dollar is falling and inflation data just surprised to the upside — that’s a strong trade setup.
- When both the chart and the news point the same way, it’s usually a higher-probability trade.
8. ⏱️ Respect Round Numbers
Levels like $3,000, $3,100, and $3,200 are psychological and often act as support/resistance.
Expect hesitation or fakeouts near round numbers.
Use these areas to:
- Take partial profit
- Tighten your stop
9. ⚠️ Watch for Breakout Traps
Gold often fakes out traders — pushing through a key level only to reverse quickly.
- Wait for a full candle close beyond support or resistance
- Or look for a retest of the broken level before entering
- You can also buy before resistance or sell before support with tight stops
10. 📉 Use Fibonacci on Pullbacks
Gold respects Fibonacci retracement levels well during trending markets.
- In an uptrend, if the market pulls back by 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% from the most recent upward move, these levels often act as support zones where the trend can continue.
- In a downtrend, those same levels can act as resistance during a retracement.
You can apply Fibonacci retracements on both short-term charts for intraday trades and longer-term charts for swing or position trades. Look for price to pause or reverse at these levels as part of your trade setup.
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