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Risk Appetite Recovers, Pushing Equities and Bitcoin Higher

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Nick Goold

Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

Global market sentiment improved last week in a short trading week due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays. Risk appetite strengthened, lifting U.S. and Japanese equities along with Bitcoin, as dovish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials and weaker-than-expected economic data boosted expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts.

In Japan, the yield on the 10-year government bond climbed toward 17-year highs following stronger economic data, heightening speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise its official interest rate. Persistent concerns about Japan’s fiscal position also weighed on investor sentiment.

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Meanwhile, the United States proposed a peace plan aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine, raising hopes for an eventual end to the conflict. However, the market reaction was muted as such developments had been largely anticipated. Gold prices rose as expectations of a U.S. rate cut encouraged renewed safe-haven buying.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow ended the month on a strong note, supported by rising expectations of a December interest rate cut. The short-term downtrend was broken after closing above the 10-day moving average, suggesting a period of sideways movement or a possible test of recent highs. While optimism over lower rates is boosting sentiment, concerns about high valuations remain a limiting factor. Resistance levels are at 48,000, 48,500, and 49,000, while support is seen at 47,000, 46,500, 46,000, and 45,000.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei recovered last week, moving back above the 50,000円 level, supported by strength in U.S. equities. Tokyo’s November inflation came in at 2.8% year over year, remaining above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and raising expectations of an official rate hike in December. However, with long-term interest rates continuing to rise, the Nikkei looks unlikely to reach new highs in the short term, making selling opportunities near resistance more attractive. Resistance is at 51,000円, 51,500円, and 52,000円, while support is at 49,000円, 48,000円, and 47,000円.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY moved lower to test former resistance at 156, which has now turned into support, as expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut increased along with a higher probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The market is also revising upward its view of potential intervention levels by the Bank of Japan to above 158. With the recent strong uptrend broken following a weekly close below the 10-day moving average, range trading opportunities now look most favorable. Key levels remain unchanged — resistance is at 157, 158, and 159, while support is at 156, 155.5, 155, and 154.5.

Gold

Gold resumed its strong uptrend in 2025 as both speculators and long-term investors returned as buyers amid rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The market closed near the week’s highs, just below the early November peak, with the upper Bollinger Band providing short-term resistance. The uptrend looks likely to continue, and buying on weakness rather than chasing the market appears to be the best strategy this week. Resistance is at $4,250, $4,350, and $4,380, while support is at $4,150, $4,100, and $4,050.

Crude Oil

WTI edged slightly lower last week as the bearish trend continued amid ongoing peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Improved risk appetite limited further losses in the quiet holiday week, but crude oil remains under pressure overall. Focusing on selling opportunities below $60 continues to look like the best strategy. Resistance remains at $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, while support is at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin recovered last week as improved risk sentiment and rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut prompted renewed buying from speculators. The recent strong downtrend was broken with a close above the 10-day moving average, suggesting new yearly lows are unlikely in the short term. Range trading between $85,000 and $95,000 looks to be the best strategy this week. Resistance is at $95,000 and $100,000, while support is at $85,000, $80,000, and $75,000.

This Weeks Focus Image

This Week’s Focus

Monday: U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: E.U. CPI and Unemployment Rate, U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks and JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday: Australia GDP, Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI, E.U. ECB President Lagarde Speaks, U.K. S&P Global Services PMI, U.S. Industrial Production, S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thursday: E.U. Retail Sales
Friday: E.U. GDP, U.S. Core PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The highlight this week will be Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech early in the week, as traders position themselves ahead of this month’s Fed meeting. With the release of U.S. employment data delayed, the most important reports will be the U.S. PMI figures. Movements in U.S. equities will be closely watched to see whether the recent recovery can continue.

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