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Stock Markets at Record Highs — Has Trump Already Won?

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Nick Goold

2025: A Year of Volatility and Opportunity

This year has been full of big market moves and chances to make or lose money. President Donald Trump’s trade and economic policies have shaken up stocks, currencies, and commodities. After a major drop in April, markets have bounced back to record highs by July. With stocks rising and the U.S. dollar falling, some are asking: has Trump already won?

The April Crash: When Markets Lost Faith

In April 2025, President Trump announced large new tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, including China, the European Union, and Japan. The market’s reaction was immediate and severe:

  • U.S. stocks plunged, with the S&P 500 suffering its biggest one-day drop in years.
  • Analysts warned of rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and a possible recession.
  • Gold surged as investors rushed to safety, and the U.S. dollar index quickly fell below 100.


Many economists saw it as a major policy blunder. But just as panic set in, the markets began to shift direction.

US500 Daily ChartS&P500 Daily Chart

The Rebound: Deals, Diplomacy, and Market Records

Just months later, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs. What changed?

Trump’s team made key trade deals with China and the UK, easing fears and showing that the tariff strategy had a clear plan. Tariffs were reduced, and confidence returned. Tech stocks led a strong rally that wiped out April’s losses. Talks with Japan and others are still ongoing, but markets are already feeling more positive.

Trump’s tough trade moves, once seen as reckless, now look more like smart bargaining.

Has Trump Already Won? Does It Matter?

So—has Trump won? That depends on who you talk to. And it’s not a question traders need to answer. Markets aren’t shaped by one man, one policy, or one headline. They move based on interest rates, inflation, earnings, global trends, and sentiment. Trump may be one factor, but he’s not the market.

For traders, the real questions are:

  • How can I take advantage of the current market environment?
  • Has the market moved too far in one direction?
  • Is there a strong trend I can follow?
  • Or is the market going sideways, waiting for the next big news?
  • Which markets are the most volatile right now, and why?
  • How can I trade them?


Traders don’t get paid for political predictions—they get paid for smart decisions in real time.

USD Flap image

The Dollar Paradox: Strength Turns to Weakness

While stocks have climbed, the U.S. dollar has dropped. The dollar index (DXY) is down over 10% this year—its worst start since 1973. Trump’s policies have pushed investors away from U.S. assets toward gold, the euro, and Asian currencies. Supply chains are shifting, and global confidence in U.S. leadership is fading. The weaker dollar has boosted EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and foreign stocks—creating new trading opportunities.

What’s Next: Be Ready for Anything

Right now, sentiment is extremely positive. But that in itself is a warning sign. The most obvious risk is a disappointment from Trump—such as failed negotiations with Japan or a new surprise tariff announcement—which could trigger a fast market drop.

But don’t forget the alternative: many traders were expecting further losses and are now caught on the sidelines. If they rush to buy in, markets could continue rising sharply. It’s not about predicting which outcome will happen. It’s about being prepared for multiple scenarios—bullish or bearish—so that you can trade with confidence, not fear.

Ready Trader

Trading Strategy: Stay Calm, Be Prepared, Manage Risk

In this kind of environment, having a clear strategy is essential. Here’s how smart traders are approaching Trump-driven markets:

1. Stay Calm

Avoid making emotional decisions. Trump headlines can cause huge intraday swings, but don’t let them push you into reactive trades. Calmness is a trader’s biggest edge.

2. Know Your Markets

Trump's actions impact a wide range of assets:

  • S&P 500 – Reacts to optimism on growth and deals
  • Gold – Moves on safe-haven demand and USD weakness
  • USD/JPY – Sensitive to U.S.-Japan tensions
  • Crude Oil – Jumps on geopolitical fears, falls with easing


Choose the markets you understand best and know how they react to Trump-related news.

3. Expect Volatility, Plan for It

Use volatility to your advantage:

  • Set wider stops and smaller position sizes
  • Look for breakout levels that match headline risk
  • Have both bullish and bearish trade plans ready


4. Focus on Process, Not Predictions

Good trading is about:

  • Risk management – Cut losses early, let winners run
  • Trend awareness – Respect momentum but prepare for reversals
  • Emotional discipline – Exit on signals, not opinions


The Trump rally of 2025 has been a wild ride—one that rewarded flexible, calm, and disciplined traders. Whether Trump “wins” or not is irrelevant. Your success as a trader depends not on political opinions but on strategy, risk control, and the ability to take advantage of market volatility. Stay alert. Be prepared. Focus on trades that offer more reward than risk. That’s how you win—no matter who’s in the White House.

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