Nick Goold
Latest Political News
President-elect Donald Trump faces mounting criticism over his cabinet picks and proposed policies, including a plan to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China upon taking office, raising risks of destabilizing impacts on businesses and global trade. Experts warn these tariffs could harm U.S. companies, even if not fully implemented. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also pushed back on Trump’s claim that she agreed to halt migration through Mexico, emphasizing her country seeks to build bridges, not close borders. Meanwhile, at least nine of Trump’s cabinet nominees have faced warnings about their suitability, further heightening concerns about his administration's direction.
Volatility Index
VIX Last Week
Open: 15.02 High: 15.47 Low: 14.15 Close: 14.20
Summary
The VIX had a quiet week, edging slightly lower within a narrow range as US equities reached record highs. The Thanksgiving holidays contributed to a reduction in perceived market risk, keeping volatility subdued despite lingering uncertainties around President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks.
VIX Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
In the short term, with U.S. equities remaining strong and year-end holidays approaching, the VIX is likely to stay under pressure. While selling the VIX appears to be the best strategy for now, the probability of increased volatility grows as Trump’s inauguration early next year approaches.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
With Trump’s clear majority victory, the VIX is expected to settle at lower levels as market confidence grows around continued business-friendly and market-stabilizing policies. However, anticipate periods of quick VIX spikes as new policies, especially those related to trade and international relations, are introduced.
Stock Indices
Dow Jones Index Last Week
Open: 44,507 High: 45,102 Low: 44,462 Close: 44,981
Nikkei 225 Last Week
Open 38,671 High 39,064 Low 37,629 Close 38,283
Summary
The Dow had another record-breaking week in a shortened trading period due to the Thanksgiving holidays, boosted by lower long-term U.S. interest rates as inflation expectations eased. Markets are pricing in a 66% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting, further supporting equities. Investors poured $141 billion into U.S. stocks this month, marking the largest four-week inflow on record, according to EPFR Global. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 remained subdued, failing to track U.S. equities higher as a strengthening yen dampened sentiment, and technical indicators signaled sideways movement.
Dow Weekly Chart
Nikkei 225 Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
The Dow remains bullish, and both short and medium-term traders should look to follow the uptrend for now. December is historically a strong month for equities, and further investor buying is anticipated. However, as Trump clarifies his policies, particularly regarding tariffs that could negatively impact U.S. companies, the risk of a quick correction increases. If the Dow moves back below support at $44,550, this could present a profitable selling opportunity for traders. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 failed to break resistance at 39,000 Yen last week, and with the yen strengthening, selling opportunities remain the best option for both short and medium-term strategies.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
A Trump win is expected to benefit the Dow, with the market anticipating tax cuts and deregulation. However, Trump’s ‘America First’ policies and potential tariff increases could pose challenges. This outcome may be less favorable for the Nikkei, as Trump could push for a stronger yen to support U.S. exports, which may hurt Japanese exporters and place downward pressure on the index.
Energy
Oil (WTI) Last Week
Open: 71.35 High: 71.55 Low: 68.17 Close: 68.58
Summary
WTI had a quiet week, resuming its downtrend as traders awaited the outcome of the delayed OPEC+ meeting on output policy, now scheduled for this Thursday. Markets have largely priced in the expectation that production normalization will be pushed back to the first quarter of 2025, contributing to subdued price action.
Oil (WTI) Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
WTI is expected to remain under pressure amid ongoing oversupply concerns. With technical indicators suggesting a sideways trend, using a range-trading strategy between $67 and $72 appears to be the best approach for traders this week.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
The Trump victory is expected to boost US oil production, potentially putting downward pressure on prices as supply rises. Additionally, Trump’s efforts to end unrest in the Middle East could further soften prices if successful. A strong USD under his presidency could also weaken WTI prices.
Crypto
Bitcoin Last Week
Open: 97,932 High: 98,944 Low: 90,835 Close: 96,560
Summary
Bitcoin saw a significant profit-taking pullback early last week, dropping approximately 10% from its highs as the $100,000 resistance level prompted speculators to exit their positions. This decline came without any major negative news, reflecting the natural ebb and flow of markets. Traders remain optimistic about the growth of the digital asset space next year, supported by President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to introduce crypto-friendly regulations to boost interest in the sector. Bitcoin found support at $90,000, rebounded strongly, and closed only slightly lower, which is seen as a positive sign for the market.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
With the expected profit-taking sell-off now completed, Bitcoin has a higher probability of breaking $100,000, making a focus on buying opportunities the best strategy this week. Technical indicators, such as the 10-day moving average, are now pointing sideways, suggesting reduced volatility in the coming days.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
A Trump victory is clearly bullish for Bitcoin, as Trump and his team are openly crypto-friendly. This supportive stance could drive Bitcoin toward $100,000 or higher in a favourable policy environment.
Upcoming Political & Economic Events
As the market enters the final month of the year, several key events could drive movement this week. Major economic announcements to watch include the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday and the highly anticipated U.S. employment data on Friday, considered the most important release of the month. Additionally, on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to give a speech, which could increase volatility as markets search for clues about the possibility of an interest rate cut at this month’s meeting.
Potential Market Impact
U.S. equities remain strong, and with year-end holidays approaching, the VIX is likely to stay under pressure. Selling the VIX remains the best strategy for now, though volatility could increase as Trump’s inauguration nears. The Dow continues to show bullish momentum, with December historically favoring equities. Traders should follow the uptrend but remain cautious of a quick correction if Trump’s tariff policies raise concerns. A break below $44,550 could present a selling opportunity, while the Nikkei’s failure at 39,000 Yen suggests selling remains the best option as yen strength persists.
WTI is likely to remain under pressure amid oversupply concerns, with traders advised to focus on range-bound strategies between $67 and $72. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s profit-taking pullback is complete, increasing the likelihood of breaking $100,000. With technical indicators pointing sideways and volatility easing, buying opportunities appear favorable this week.
This Week's Trump Trades
The Trump rally appears set to continue as markets focus on the positive impacts rather than the negatives. While Trump’s further outlining of trade policies and potential tariffs increases the risk of a sell-off, the overall perception of a pro-business U.S. president is keeping sentiment bullish.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Tesla faced resistance at $360 at the start of the week, leading the market into a sideways pattern. However, last Friday's positive close above the 10-day moving average suggests further gains are currently the most likely scenario. If Tesla breaks below support at $325, it could present a profitable selling opportunity for short-term traders.
Tesla Daily Chart
Bitcoin
After last week’s volatility, Bitcoin may experience a quieter week ahead. Technical indicators, including the 10-day moving average, suggest a sideways trend, signaling reduced volatility in the near term. Bulls are likely to push for another test of $100,000, especially with many short-term traders having already taken profits. Monitoring any comments about crypto from Trump or Musk will be crucial. With the profit-taking sell-off now behind it, Bitcoin has a stronger chance of breaking $100,000, making buying opportunities the best strategy this week.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed at another record high to end last week, a positive sign as the market remained quiet due to Thanksgiving holidays. While there is still a chance of a profit-taking sell-off, the uptrend remains strong, and December is traditionally a bullish month, making a focus on higher levels the best strategy. However, a break below the 10-day moving average could signal a quick sell-off if bearish news shifts market sentiment.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
Take Advantage of Trump’s Win with Titan FX
Trading with Titan FX provides an excellent trading environment, offering access to a broad range of markets and allowing traders to seize diverse opportunities. With a single MT5 login, traders can easily access not only FX markets but also stock indices, commodities, Bitcoin, and single stock CFDs. This platform enables seamless trading and monitoring across multiple markets, giving traders the flexibility to adapt quickly to market developments and capitalise on emerging trends.
Titan FX stands out for its top-tier trade execution, which is critical in fast-moving markets, as well as its dedicated customer support team, which is always ready to assist. Deposits and withdrawals are easy and quick, so you can focus on taking advantage of trading opportunities. With Titan FX, you have a supportive, professional platform that empowers you to navigate market opportunities confidently and effectively.
