Nick Goold
Latest Political News
President-elect Donald Trump continued to draw attention with his controversial cabinet picks, facing pushback from Senate Republicans that led to Rep. Matt Gaetz withdrawing his name from consideration for Attorney General. In a new announcement, Trump nominated Scott Bessent to lead the US Treasury Department, granting him oversight of tax policy, public debt, international finance, and sanctions. A strong supporter of Trump’s tax cuts and trade tariff policies, Bessent’s nomination has raised concerns about the potential wide-ranging implications for financial markets and global trade.
Volatility Index
VIX Last Week
Open: 15.39 High: 16.60 Low: 14.69 Close: 15.12
Summary
The VIX continued to find support around the 15 level last week as the market began to price in a potential rise in volatility. This was driven by signals that President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks could mark a sharp policy shift from the Biden administration. However, the VIX ended the week unchanged, as the Dow's return to historical highs encouraged renewed selling in the index, offsetting some of the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s leadership choices.
VIX Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
Renewed strength in U.S. equities has put the VIX under pressure, with a potential test below support levels likely in the short term. Traders could look for a buying opportunity if the VIX tests critical support at 13 or wait for a move above 16 on stock market weakness to buy the VIX.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
With Trump’s clear majority victory, the VIX is expected to settle at lower levels as market confidence grows around continued business-friendly and market-stabilizing policies. However, anticipate periods of quick VIX spikes as new policies, especially those related to trade and international relations, are introduced.
Stock Indices
Dow Jones Index Last Week
Open: 43,450 High: 44,365 Low: 42,889 Close: 44,356
Nikkei 225 Last Week
Open 37,980 High 38,632 Low 37,689 Close 38,570
Summary
The Trump rally regained momentum last week, with the Dow surging as investors anticipated a strong finish to the year for equities. Speculation about potential pressure from Trump to lower U.S. interest rates to support the market added optimism but also highlighted possible tensions with the Federal Reserve. The Dow closed the week near record highs, reflecting investor confidence. Meanwhile, it was a quiet week for the Nikkei, as market participants shifted their attention to domestic monetary policy in preparation for next month’s crucial Bank of Japan meeting.
Dow Weekly Chart
Nikkei 225 Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
The strong rise in the Dow last week could encourage speculators to chase the market higher in the short term. However, the market may trade sideways ahead of key U.S. data releases on Wednesday, which could set the tone before the Thanksgiving holiday. Short-term traders may find opportunities in selling a rejection of resistance levels, while medium-term traders should remain bullish and consider buying if the market breaks through historical highs. Meanwhile, the Nikkei could push higher if it moves above 39,000 Yen, offering a buying opportunity for short-term traders, but with strong resistance at 40,000 Yen, medium-term traders should remain bearish and look for selling opportunities.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
A Trump win is expected to benefit the Dow, with the market anticipating tax cuts and deregulation. However, Trump’s ‘America First’ policies and potential tariff increases could pose challenges. This outcome may be less favorable for the Nikkei, as Trump could push for a stronger yen to support U.S. exports, which may hurt Japanese exporters and place downward pressure on the index.
Energy
Oil (WTI) Last Week
Open: 66.91 High: 71.65 Low: 66.71 Close: 71.38
Summary
Increased geopolitical risks in Russia and Iran helped WTI rise from support at $67, encouraging speculative buying that pushed prices higher last week. Strong U.S. manufacturing data released on Friday added further momentum, allowing prices to close at the highs of the week.
Oil (WTI) Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
Despite last week’s rise, selling appears to remain the best strategy for WTI in the short to medium term as U.S. inventories remain high and global demand forecasts, particularly in major consumer markets like China, continue to be weak. Additionally, supply concerns persist, with the International Energy Agency projecting a significant oversupply of one million barrels per day next year.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
The Trump victory is expected to boost US oil production, potentially putting downward pressure on prices as supply rises. Additionally, Trump’s efforts to end unrest in the Middle East could further soften prices if successful. A strong USD under his presidency could also weaken WTI prices.
Crypto
Bitcoin Last Week
Open: 90,929 High: 99,624 Low: 89,130 Close: 98,048
Summary
Bitcoin continued its climb to record highs last week, coming close to the $100,000 milestone as the Trump rally gained momentum. Social media buzz about Bitcoin hitting $100,000 reached an all-time high, signalling heightened retail interest and a surge in FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment. Meanwhile, institutional investors are increasing their participation, as evidenced by rising ETF inflows, further fueling the cryptocurrency's upward trajectory.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Market Analysis (Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental Analysis)
Bitcoin is now up 40% since Trump’s victory, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index showing a score of 80, signalling "Extreme Greed" in the market. The risk of a sharp pullback is increasing after resistance held firm at $100,000 last week. Watch for a test of $95,000 support this week. If the 10-day moving average provides support, another attempt to break $100,000 could be on the horizon.
Potential Impact of the Trump Presidency
A Trump victory is clearly bullish for Bitcoin, as Trump and his team are openly crypto-friendly. This supportive stance could drive Bitcoin toward $100,000 or higher in a favourable policy environment.
Upcoming Political & Economic Events
It’s a shortened trading week due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays toward the end of the week, but plenty of opportunities remain. Markets will gain insight into the Federal Reserve’s thinking with the release of the minutes from the last meeting on Wednesday. Additionally, key U.S. economic data releases, including Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and the Core PCE Price Index, are all scheduled for Wednesday, likely making it the most volatile day of the week.
Potential Market Impact
Renewed strength in U.S. equities has put the VIX under pressure, with a potential test of support at 13 likely in the short term, offering buying opportunities at this level or above 16 on stock market weakness. The strong rise in the Dow last week could encourage speculators to push the market higher in the short term, but it may trade sideways ahead of key U.S. data releases on Wednesday, which could set the tone before the Thanksgiving holiday. Short-term traders may find opportunities in selling a rejection of resistance levels, while medium-term traders should remain bullish and consider buying if the market breaks through historical highs. Meanwhile, the Nikkei could push higher above 39,000 Yen, offering short-term buying opportunities, but with strong resistance at 40,000 Yen, medium-term traders should remain bearish and look for selling opportunities.
WTI remains pressured despite last week’s rise, as high U.S. inventories and weak global demand forecasts, particularly in China, weigh on the market. The International Energy Agency projects a significant oversupply of one million barrels per day next year, maintaining a bearish outlook. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up 40% since Trump’s victory, with the Fear & Greed Index at 82, signalling "Extreme Greed." The risk of a sharp pullback is rising after resistance held firm at $100,000 last week. A test of $95,000 support is possible this week, with the 10-day moving average holding the key for another attempt to break $100,000.
This Week's Trump Trades
The cabinet appointments, though somewhat controversial, have not surprised markets, contributing to a return of positive sentiment toward the Trump presidency. With markets now back at the initial highs from the Trump rally, the focus this week will be on whether they can push higher.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Tesla has moved back to its post-Trump victory highs, showing a strong uptrend after testing support at the 10-day moving average. While Trump remains hesitant on electric vehicles, speculation that he may ease restrictions on self-driving cars is providing a bullish outlook for Tesla. As the market speculates on how long the strong relationship between Trump and Musk will endure, Tesla’s momentum remains intact. However, caution is advised if the stock fails to move above this month’s highs at $360. In such a case, range trading might be the best strategy this week, especially with the Thanksgiving holidays ahead.
Tesla Daily Chart
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains one of the most closely watched markets as its rise continued last week, reaching record highs. The cryptocurrency is now up 40% since Trump’s victory, signalling an overbought market with extremely high bullish sentiment and interest in crypto. However, the risk of a sharp pullback is increasing after resistance held firm at $100,000 last week. Traders should watch for a test of $95,000 support this week. If the 10-day moving average holds, another attempt to break $100,000 could be on the horizon. A surprise break of the $100,000 resistance could trigger a quick rise, which short-term traders should look to capitalise on.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
S&P 500
The S&P 500 had an encouraging week, recovering from support at the October highs, which is a positive sign. While market sentiment remains bullish on the upcoming Trump presidency, technical indicators suggest a sideways trend. With Thanksgiving holidays at the end of the week, range trading appears to be the best strategy for short-term traders. Medium-term traders should maintain a bullish outlook and look to buy the S&P 500 on any weakness.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
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