Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

President Trump extended the tariff deadline to August and increased pressure on key trading partners. A 30% tariff on EU goods and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports will begin August 1. Tariffs on Japanese products will also rise to 25%, up from the previously announced 24%. These moves pushed the U.S. dollar higher, as markets expect rising tariffs to increase inflation and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

U.S. and Japanese stock markets edged slightly lower on profit-taking after recent gains. In contrast, Bitcoin surged to record highs, driven by institutional buying and renewed interest in Bitcoin ETFs. Gold also rose toward the end of the week, as investors turned cautious amid growing concerns over the impact of tariffs.

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes showed a cautious and divided stance on future rate cuts. While a few members supported a cut as early as July, most wanted to wait for more evidence that inflation is moving steadily toward the 2% target. They also emphasized the need to monitor the economic effects of the newly announced tariffs before taking action.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

U.S. equities ended the week lower as investors took profits and reacted to renewed concerns over trade policy, following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on multiple trading partners. The Dow closed below its 10-day moving average, signaling a possible end to the strong three-week rally. With uncertainty around trade negotiations, the market is likely to move sideways or lower in the near term. Key support levels are at 44,000, 43,000, and 42,000, while resistance is now seen at 45,000, 45,100, and 45,500.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei continued to trade below key resistance at 40,000円 as U.S.–Japan trade negotiations showed no signs of progress, keeping market sentiment cautious. A weaker yen failed to lift the index, and overall momentum remains weak. In the short term, the Nikkei looks likely to stay under pressure, with a focus on selling opportunities preferred. Resistance is now seen at 40,000円, 41,000円, and 42,000円, while support levels are at 39,000円 and 38,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY had a strong week, supported by the lack of progress in U.S.–Japan trade talks, which is expected to delay U.S. rate cuts and prevent the Bank of Japan from raising rates. This has made the carry trade — selling yen to buy dollars — more attractive. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but the market looks slightly overbought in the short term. Waiting for a pullback to buy later in the week may offer better opportunities. Key support levels are at 146 and 145, while resistance is seen at 148 and 149.

Gold

Gold started the week under pressure as strong equity markets reduced demand for safe-haven assets. However, renewed trade tensions brought buyers back into the market, helping gold recover and close the week near its highs, despite a stronger U.S. dollar. While gold remains range-bound, ongoing delays in trade negotiations are likely to keep it well supported at lower levels. The $3,250 to $3,400 range is expected to hold this week, so selling early or waiting for a dip later in the week may offer the best opportunities. Resistance is seen at $3,400, while support sits at $3,250 and $3,200.

Crude Oil

Crude oil continued to attract buying interest near the key $65 support level last week, despite ongoing easing in Middle East tensions and uncertainty around trade negotiations. The recent price action looks more positive, with the 10-day moving average starting to turn higher — a good sign for the medium-term outlook. In the short term, the market remains range-bound between $65 and $70. Resistance is seen at $70, $75, and $80, while support holds at $65 and $60.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin finally broke to new all-time highs last week, driven by strong institutional and ETF-related buying, with U.S. government policies continuing to support the crypto market. With prices now at record levels, further upside is likely as there are no clear resistance levels — only psychological barriers where some profit-taking may occur. However, in the short term, the market looks slightly overbought, so waiting for a pullback toward the 10-day moving average may offer better entry points. Short-term traders should follow momentum on lower timeframes, where both buying and selling opportunities are expected. Resistance is now seen at $125,000 and $150,000, while support lies at $115,000, $110,000, and $105,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: U.K. Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks
Tuesday: China GDP, U.K. Retail Sales, E.U. Industrial Production, U.S. CPI
Wednesday: U.K. CPI, U.S. PPI, U.S. Industrial Production
Thursday: Australia Unemployment Rate, E.U. CPI, U.S. Retail Sales
Friday: U.S. Housing Starts, U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment

This week could see a rise in market volatility after a relatively quiet period, as several key events come into focus. Trade negotiations led by President Trump with Canada, the EU, and Japan are expected to generate headlines, especially with tariff deadlines approaching. In addition, important U.S. economic data — including inflation and retail sales — could have a major impact on market direction.

The key question is whether markets will continue to brush off trade tensions, as they have recently, or if fear will return like it did a few months ago. With uncertainty building, investor sentiment may shift quickly, and volatility could increase across both traditional and crypto markets.