Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

U.S. stocks were the most active market last week, with tech shares driving the S&P 500 to record highs and the Dow getting close to its own peak. Confidence was boosted by strong jobs data — the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, showing the economy is still holding up well. The U.S. dollar traded lower at the start of the week but recovered as long-term interest rates rose in response to the positive employment report.

Markets also focused on trade talks as the July 9 deadline for the end of the U.S. tariff freeze approached. Despite many discussions between the U.S. and Japan, no deal had been reached, adding some uncertainty about possible new tariffs and their impact on global trade.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed will “wait and learn more” before making any changes to interest rates. He pushed back on pressure from President Trump for large rate cuts, saying the Fed would act carefully based on economic data — especially inflation — and not political demands.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow had another strong week as U.S. equities rose on solid buying of technology stocks and a general lack of negative news. Better-than-expected U.S. employment data helped ease concerns about the impact of tariffs on consumers, while the market continues to wait for the next U.S. interest rate cut. After a strong two-week rally, prices may move sideways or slightly lower this week as the market takes a breather. The overall uptrend remains intact, and buying on dips is still seen as the best strategy. Key support levels are at 44,000, 43,000, and 42,000. Resistance is now seen at 45,000, 45,100, and 45,500.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 reversed recent gains last week, despite strong performance in U.S. equities, as resistance above 40,000円 triggered selling. Concerns over U.S.–Japan tariff negotiations ahead of the July 8 deadline also weighed on sentiment. The index has fallen back below the 10-day moving average, a negative technical signal that could lead to further downside toward 39,000円 or even 38,000円. Resistance is now seen at 40,000円, 41,000円, and 42,000円, while support levels are at 39,000円 and 38,000円.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY recovered last week after finding strong support at 143, climbing quickly on the back of better-than-expected U.S. employment data. The Bank of Japan is closely watching U.S.–Japan tariff negotiations, as the outcome could affect its plans to raise interest rates later this year. Despite the recent bounce, the overall trend still appears weak, with the 10-day moving average pointing lower. Range trading between 143 and 145 looks likely this week. Key support levels are at 143 and 142, while resistance is seen at 145 and 146.

Gold

Gold found support last week after recent losses, with strong underlying demand and a weaker U.S. dollar helping to stabilize prices. Although stronger U.S. employment data added some pressure late in the week, gold still managed to close with small gains. Despite rising stock markets, gold has held up relatively well, which is a positive sign for the bulls. If Middle East tensions rise again or U.S.–Japan tariff negotiations break down, gold could quickly rally. For now, range trading between $3,250 and $3,350 looks like the best approach. Resistance is seen at $3,350 and $3,400, while support sits at $3,250 and $3,200.

Crude Oil

Crude oil found support at $65 last week, even as Middle East tensions continued to ease. Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data helped calm fears of a slowdown in U.S. demand, which was initially seen as positive for prices. However, the rebound was short-lived, and the market quickly reversed lower. This week, a break below the key $65 support level looks possible, with selling opportunities likely to offer the best strategy. Resistance is seen at $70, $75, and $80, while support remains at $65 and $60.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to challenge all-time highs, supported by strong buying from both investors and speculators as risk sentiment remains positive across markets. In the current environment, further gains look likely, and buying on weakness remains the best strategy this week. Resistance is at $110,000, $112,500, and $115,000, with support at $105,000, $100,000, and $95,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: E.U. Retail Sales
Tuesday: Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
Wednesday: Japan PPI, China CPI and PPI, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
Thursday: U.S. Jobless Claims, U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes, U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday: U.K. GDP

This week will likely be quiet, with only a few major economic events. Markets will focus on U.S.–Japan tariff talks and whether the current freeze will be extended to August 1. The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting will also be important, as traders look for clues on when the next U.S. interest rate cut might happen. With little news, technical analysis may become more important during the slower summer trading period.

Stock markets will try to continue their recent rise as investor confidence stays strong. Bitcoin is also in the spotlight, with hopes it can reach new record highs as risk appetite increases.