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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 103.50 and 104.00 resistance levels.
  • EUR/USD extended its decline below the 1.2150 support zone.
  • Crude oil price consolidating gains, while gold price is still well below $1,900.
  • The US Retail Sales figure (to be released today) is likely to remain flat in Dec 2020 (MoM).

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

After forming a support base near 102.60, the US Dollar started a steady increase against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY broke a major resistance at 103.50 to move into a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair remained stable above 103.50 and it even broke the key 104.00 resistance level. A high was formed near 104.40 level and the pair settled nicely above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

Recently, there was a downside correction below 104.00, but the pair stayed above the 103.50 support. The pair is showing positive signs, but it must gain momentum above 104.40 to continue higher.

The next major resistance is near the 105.00 level. If there is a downside correction, the 103.50 level might provide support. A clear break below the 103.50 level may possibly lead the pair towards the 103.00 support zone.

Overall, USD/JPY is showing positive signs and it could continue to rise if it clears 104.40. Looking at EUR/USD, the pair extended its decline below the 1.2150 support level. GBP/USD also seems to be struggling to clear 1.3700 and it could correct lower.

Economic Releases

  • UK Industrial Production for Nov 2020 (MoM) - Forecast +0.5%, versus +1.3% previous.
  • UK Manufacturing Production for Nov 2020 (MoM) - Forecast +0.9%, versus +1.7% previous.
  • UK GDP for Nov 2020 (MoM) - Forecast -5.7%, versus +0.4% previous.
  • US Retail Sales for Dec 2020 (MoM) – Forecast 0%, versus -1.1% previous.