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USD/JPY Tumbles, Upsides Could Be Capped

Key Highlights

  • USD/JPY started a major decline below the 146.20 support.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 146.20 on the 4-hour chart.
  • EUR/USD is consolidating near the 1.0765 support zone.
  • The US nonfarm payrolls could increase from 150K to 180K in Nov 2023.


USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a major decline from the 150.00 resistance zone against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY declined below the 148.20 and 147.50 levels to move into a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below the 146.20 pivot level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours).

There was a move below the 145.00 support and the pair traded as low as 141.63. It is now attempting a recovery wave above the 143.00 level. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 144.50 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 147.50 swing high to the 141.63 low.

The next key resistance is near the 145.50 level. The main resistance is near the trend line and 146.20. A close above the 146.20 zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next stop for the bulls might be 147.50.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 143.00 level. The next key support is near 142.20, below which the pair might accelerate lower toward 141.20 in the near term. Any more losses might call for a move toward 140.00.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is showing a few bearish signs, but the bulls are attempting to protect the 1.0765 support zone.

Economic Releases

  • US nonfarm payrolls for Nov 2023 – Forecast 180K, versus 150K previous.
  • US Unemployment Rate for Nov 2023 - Forecast 3.9%, versus 3.9% previous.