Solid Goold Trading

Monday’s Edition

With Nick Goold

Global market sentiment weakened last week as risk appetite declined, leading to broad losses in equities and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin dropped sharply, reflecting a shift away from high-risk assets, while global stock markets also fell amid growing investor caution.

The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes showed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved a quarter-point rate cut, but the split 10–2 vote underscored divisions among policymakers. While weak U.S. data lifted expectations for another rate cut — with the probability rising to around 70% — it did not stop the U.S. dollar from strengthening. The combination of policy uncertainty and mixed data left traders cautious about the Fed’s next move.

With delayed reports finally released, the September U.S. jobs report revealed the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, signaling a cooling labor market. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued to weaken significantly despite growing concern from the Japanese government, which reiterated its readiness to act against excessive currency moves.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

It was a volatile week for the Dow, which finished lower as investors remained concerned about high valuations and signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. NVIDIA’s stronger-than-expected earnings provided only a short-term boost, with the index quickly finding resistance at the 10-day moving average. The downtrend looks set to continue this week, so selling near resistance around the 10-day moving average and targeting a retest of last month’s lows remains the preferred strategy. Resistance levels are at 47,000, 47,500, and 48,000, while support is at 46,000, 45,700, 45,200, and 45,000.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei closed more than 3% lower last week, reversing part of its recent strong rally. Investor sentiment weakened as concerns grew over high valuations in AI-related stocks and the Japanese government’s financial position following the announcement of a new economic assistance package. Technical indicators now point lower, suggesting further weakness this week. Traders should look to sell on strength near resistance around 50,000円. Resistance is at 50,000円, 51,000円, and 51,500円, while support is at 48,000円, 47,000円, and 46,000円.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY surged above the 156 resistance last week, surprising the market as traders judged Bank of Japan intervention unlikely in the short term. Ongoing concerns about Japan’s long-term government finances also added pressure on the yen. The sharp rise caught many traders off guard, and while further gains appear limited, sideways movement between 155.5 and 158 looks most likely this week. Resistance is at 157, 158, and 159, while support is at 156, 155.5, 155, and 154.5.

Gold

Gold was relatively quiet last week as market attention shifted to equities, Bitcoin, and USD/JPY. The stronger U.S. dollar put pressure on prices, though gold successfully held support around $4,000 several times. Profit-taking also returned, keeping momentum limited. Technical indicators now point sideways, suggesting a range-trading strategy between $3,950 and $4,150 is best for this week. Resistance is at $4,150, $4,200, and $4,250, while support is at $4,000, $3,950, $3,925, and $3,900.

Crude Oil

WTI closed the week near its lows as worries about oversupply and ongoing peace negotiations in Ukraine kept sellers active. Continued weakness looks likely, so traders should watch for selling opportunities in the week ahead and a potential test of the $55 level. Resistance remains at $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, while support is at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin faced heavy liquidation last week as increasingly risk-averse markets pushed prices into negative territory for the year. The weekly close below $100,000 triggered more selling as speculators exited positions, with weak sentiment in U.S. equities adding pressure. The downtrend remains strong, so traders should look to sell near the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000, while support is at $80,000, $75,000, and $70,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: U.S. Industrial Production, E.U. ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Tuesday: U.S. PPI, Retail Sales and CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Australia CPI, Japan BoJ Core CPI, U.S. Building Permits, Durable Goods Orders, GDP, Core PCE Price Index and New Home Sales
Thursday: E.U. Consumer Confidence
Friday: Japan Tokyo Core and Industrial Production, U.S. Chicago PMI

Volatility could increase this week as several important U.S. economic reports are released, giving markets a clearer picture of the economy now that the government shutdown has ended. Traders will be watching for positive data that could help stop the recent wave of selling in risky assets. The Japanese yen is also expected to remain highly volatile, offering active trading opportunities as potential intervention is balanced against concerns about government finances following the announcement of a new stimulus package.

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