Nick Goold
Weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data surprised markets last week, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and creating stronger moves across many FX pairs. The data reduced expectations for further U.S. rate hikes and increased volatility, raising the possibility that some recent trends may be starting to shift.
This week, we will analyze CAD/JPY, AUD/CHF, EUR/CAD and NZD/USD. These pairs are included in Titan FX’s Trade Beyond Borders campaign, with zero spread trading conditions available on selected popular FX pairs.
Each pair is being driven by different themes, from U.S. dollar weakness and changing interest rate expectations to commodity currency flows, yen movement and regional central bank outlooks. This creates a range of trading opportunities, including potential trend reversals, breakout setups and range-trading conditions.
Below, we look at each market’s daily chart outlook, average daily true range, key drivers and trading ideas.
How a Simple Moving Average Helps Traders Compare FX Markets
A simple moving average helps traders see quickly if a market is trending or moving sideways. If price stays above the moving average and the line is moving higher, the market may be in an uptrend. If price stays below it and the line is moving lower, the market may be in a downtrend. If price moves above and below a flat moving average, the market is likely in a range.
This makes moving averages useful for comparing different FX pairs. Trend traders may prefer markets with a clear moving average slope. Range traders may prefer markets where the moving average is flat and price is moving sideways.
The charts below use a 10-period moving average. This is short enough to react to price changes, but not as fast as a 5-period moving average, which can give too many false signals. Longer moving averages, such as 30, 50 or 100, can be useful for bigger trends, but they may react too slowly.
No indicator is perfect, but simple tools are often best. A moving average can help traders compare markets quickly, find the type of opportunities they prefer, and follow a clearer trading plan.
CAD/JPY: Oil Prices and Yen Moves
CAD/JPY is a useful pair to watch because it is affected by both oil prices and the Japanese economy.
The Canadian dollar often reacts to oil because Canada is a major oil exporter. When oil prices rise, Canada can earn more from energy exports, which can support the Canadian dollar. When oil prices fall, the Canadian dollar can weaken.
The yen side is also important. If traders become worried about risk, or if Japanese intervention fears increase, the yen can strengthen and push CAD/JPY lower. This means CAD/JPY can move strongly when oil prices, risk sentiment or yen expectations change.
Average daily true range: 56 pips (1 pip = 0.01).
Daily chart
Current chart outlook
CAD/JPY has fallen recently as weaker oil prices and higher-than-expected U.S. inflation have pressured the Canadian dollar. The pair is now moving in a range, with the 10-day moving average starting to flatten and showing less clear direction.
Traders will continue to watch whether negotiations to end the conflict involving Iran progress as expected. If geopolitical risk continues to ease, oil prices could remain under pressure, which may limit upside for CAD/JPY.
Key drivers
- Oil price direction
- Bank of Canada interest rate expectations
- Bank of Japan policy expectations
- U.S. inflation and employment data
- Japan intervention risk
- Iran conflict and oil market headlines
Trading ideas
In the short term, range trading may be the better approach. CAD/JPY is no longer showing a clear trend, and the flattening 10-day moving average suggests the pair may continue to move sideways.
Medium-term traders may prefer to focus on selling opportunities. The yen is unlikely to weaken significantly while intervention risk remains high, and weaker oil prices could continue to pressure the Canadian dollar.
AUD/CHF: Risk Mood vs Safety Demand
AUD/CHF is useful to watch because it compares two very different currencies. The Australian dollar often gets stronger when traders feel confident about global growth because Australia exports many commodities. When demand for resources is strong, AUD can rise.
The Swiss franc is different because it is often seen as a safe-haven currency. When markets become nervous, traders may buy CHF for safety. This means AUD/CHF can rise when risk sentiment is positive, but fall quickly when traders become more cautious.
Average daily true range: 32 pips (1 pip = 0.0001).
Daily chart
Current chart outlook
AUD/CHF has failed several times at the same resistance level since April. After these repeated failures, the pair has recently come under pressure.
The 10-day moving average is now pointing lower, showing that the downtrend is becoming stronger. If the pair stays below this moving average, sellers may continue to control the market in the short term.
Key drivers
- Global risk sentiment
- Commodity price trends
- Reserve Bank of Australia policy outlook
- Swiss National Bank policy outlook
- Swiss franc safe-haven demand
- China economic data
Trading ideas
The downtrend looks likely to continue, so selling near resistance may be the best strategy for now. Traders could look for selling opportunities around the 10-day moving average, or higher near the 0.5600 level if the pair rises.
Volatility is quite low, so patience is important. Instead of expecting a quick move, traders may need to hold positions for several days and wait for the downtrend to continue.
EUR/CAD: Oil Prices Meet Eurozone Uncertainty
EUR/CAD can present trading opportunities when the euro reacts to European data and the Canadian dollar moves with oil prices. This makes the pair interesting when traders are comparing the outlook for Europe and Canada.
The pair is mainly driven by European Central Bank and Bank of Canada expectations. Oil prices are also important because Canada exports a lot of oil. Higher oil prices can support the Canadian dollar and push EUR/CAD lower, while weaker oil prices can help EUR/CAD move higher.
Average daily true range: 69 pips (1 pip = 0.0001).
Daily chart
Current chart outlook
EUR/CAD is testing resistance from the past couple of months. The pair is also in a slight upward trend, with the 10-day moving average pointing higher.
Volatility is the highest of the four markets analyzed today, so traders may see larger price moves and more trading opportunities compared with the other pairs.
Key drivers
- European Central Bank interest rate expectations
- Bank of Canada interest rate expectations
- Eurozone inflation and PMI data
- Canadian inflation and employment data
- Oil price direction
- Global risk sentiment market sentiment
Trading ideas
EUR/CAD is in an uptrend, but resistance is close. For short-term traders, waiting for a pullback before buying may be the better strategy.
Medium-term traders may prefer to wait for clearer confirmation. A break above the recent highs could create a buying opportunity, while a break below the 10-day moving average could show that the trend is weakening and create a selling opportunity.
NZD/USD: A Higher-Volatility Major Pair
NZD/USD can be an active and interesting pair because it reacts quickly when traders change their view on global growth, risk sentiment or the U.S. dollar.
The New Zealand dollar often moves with global risk sentiment because New Zealand is a small, trade-focused economy. When traders feel confident about global growth, NZD can rise. When markets become cautious, NZD can fall.
The U.S. dollar side is also important. If U.S. interest rate expectations rise, NZD/USD can move lower. If U.S. data weakens and the dollar falls, NZD/USD can recover.
Average daily true range: 42 pips (1 pip = 0.0001).
Daily chart
Current chart outlook
NZD/USD has broken its recent downtrend after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data pressured the dollar. However, the 10-day moving average is still pointing lower, even though the pair has moved above it.
This suggests the downtrend has weakened, but may not be fully over yet. Further weak U.S. economic data may be needed before traders become more confident that NZD/USD can start a stronger recovery.
Key drivers
- Federal Reserve interest rate expectations
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy outlook
- U.S. employment and inflation data
- New Zealand inflation and employment data
- China growth outlook
- Global risk sentiment
Trading ideas
NZD/USD may trade sideways in the short term after breaking its recent downtrend. The market may wait for new U.S. economic data before choosing a clearer direction.
For medium-term traders, a move back below the 10-day moving average could create a selling opportunity. This would suggest that the recent recovery is weakening and the downtrend may start again.
Trade Beyond Borders with Zero Spreads
Titan FX’s Trade Beyond Borders campaign gives traders the opportunity to trade selected popular FX pairs with Zero Spread* for three weeks only.
During Week 2, eligible pairs include EUR/USD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CHF, EUR/CAD and NZD/USD. EUR/USD remains included throughout the full campaign, while four additional FX pairs rotate each week.
The campaign period runs from 29 June 2026 to 19 July 2026, excluding 22:00–02:00 GMT+3 each day. No registration is required, and promotional trading conditions are applied automatically to eligible live Standard and Blade accounts.
Learn More: https://titanfx.com/promotions/zero-spreads
Zero spread conditions apply to Blade Accounts. Standard Accounts are subject to a fixed 1 pip spread. Commission charges apply to Blade Accounts.
