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Crude Oil Price Aims Fresh Increase If It Clears $114

Aayush Jindal

Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price stayed above the $100 support zone.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 112.50 on the 4-hours chart.
  • Gold price must clear $1,940 and $1,950 to gain bullish momentum.
  • The US GDP increased 6.9% in Q4 2021, less than the forecast of 7%.

 

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After a steady increase, crude oil price faced sellers near the $118.40 level against the US Dollar. The price started a downside correction below the $115.00 support.

Looking at the monthly chart of XTI/USD, the price declined below the $105.00 support level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). It even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $92.36 swing low to $118.34 high.

However, the bulls remained active near the $100.00 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). The price stayed above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $92.36 swing low to $118.34 high.

It is now recovering, but facing resistance near $112.00. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 112.50 on the same chart.

A clear move above the trend line resistance and then $114.00 could start a strong increase. The next major resistance might be near the $118.00 level. If there is no upside break, the price could start another decline below $105.00.

The next major support is near $102, below which there is a risk of a move towards the $100 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $94.00 support.

Fundamentally, the US Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2021 was released yesterday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market was looking for a growth rate of 7%.

The actual result was lower than the forecast, as the US Gross Domestic Product increased 6.9%. Besides, the GDP Price Index increased 7.1%, less than the forecast of 7.2%.

Looking at the gold price, the bulls prevented more losses below the $1,900 level, but it could struggle to climb above the $1,940 resistance.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK GDP Q4 2021 (QoQ) - Forecast +1%, versus +1% previous.
  • UK GDP Q4 2021 (YoY) - Forecast +6.5%, versus +6.5% previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 197K, versus 187K previous.